Part Two: Tigray’s Future – Political Strategy, National Alliances, and Leadership

Sirak Zena

XV. Introduction: 

The story of Tigray is not just one of loss and destruction but also one of resilience and untapped potential. While Part One of this analysis examined the betrayals and crises that have brought Tigray to this moment, Part Two focuses on what comes next—charting a course beyond mere survival toward a future where Tigray can emerge as a catalyst for change in Ethiopia.

In the following sections, we will explore:

1. How can Tigray heal its internal divisions and rebuild with accountability?
2. How can Tigray shift from being a victim of Ethiopia’s broken federalism to becoming part of the national reform?
3. Forging alliances with other marginalized communities for peace and security is essential.
4. A critical assessment of secession, weighing its emotional appeal against practical challenges.
5. Strategies for Tigray to shape Ethiopia’s transformation alongside other ethnic groups.

This part aims to redefine Tigray’s role in the national political landscape, moving from reactionary to proactive leadership. The time for dwelling solely on past betrayals has passed; now is the moment to articulate a vision for Tigray’s future and its place in a reformed Ethiopia.

As we explore these pathways forward, we envision Tigray rising from the ashes of conflict like a phoenix, ready to play a pivotal role in Ethiopia’s rebirth and transformation.

XVI. Federal Accountability and Collective Responsibility in Rebuilding Tigray

As we strive to break the destructive cycles of betrayal and conflict, we must confront the monumental task of rebuilding Tigray. The war’s devastation has left deep scars not only on the region’s infrastructure but also on the very fabric of its society. This reconstruction effort presents both a challenge and an opportunity to redefine the relationship between Tigray and the federal government.

The dysfunction within Ethiopia’s federal system has profoundly undermined governance and adversely affected the well-being of the entire nation. This failure is starkly evident in the wake of the conflict in Tigray. The region faces political fragmentation, with the once-dominant TPLF now fractured into various factions. This internal division has led to ongoing conflicts with the Transitional Government of Tigray, hindering effective governance during this critical transitional period.

Moreover, Tigray’s representation in the national parliament is nonexistent, leaving its population without a voice in federal governance. The exodus of youth—exceeding 32,000 annually—continues as they strive to escape economic desolation, navigating perilous migration routes. The infrastructure remains devastated; hospitals and schools struggle to function, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

Viewing this situation as merely a Tigray issue and expecting the region’s challenges to be resolved in isolation is irresponsible and a continuation of the behaviors that led to this crisis. While a political resolution must originate within the region, the broader Ethiopian community and the federal government bear a moral and practical obligation to assist in Tigray’s reconstruction efforts.

The Abiy regime, which played a significant role in the devastation of Tigray, bears primary responsibility for rebuilding the region and restoring it to its pre-conflict state in 2020, if not improving upon it. This is not just a moral imperative but also a crucial step in breaking the cycle of betrayal and establishing a new paradigm of federal-regional relations.

XVII. Dismantling and Transcending Betrayal: Breaking Destructive Cycles

The betrayal of Tigray represents a profound moral failure in Ethiopia’s political history and highlights the dangers of unchecked political ambition. It exemplifies the devastating consequences when leaders prioritize personal power over the well-being of their citizens. Breaking this cycle of betrayal, suffering, and conflict is essential for Tigray’s survival and Ethiopia’s long-term stability and prosperity.

The way forward requires a comprehensive reckoning with the past. This must include an honest acknowledgment of the events that led to Tigray’s current plight, transparency, accountability, and genuine democratic representation. Central to this process is a reorientation of priorities, where the people’s needs precede political decision-making. A stable and prosperous Tigray is pivotal to Ethiopia’s broader stability, and its restoration must be seen as integral to national unity and progress.

Ethiopia’s regions share a deep interdependence, and this interconnectedness must serve as the foundation for reconciliation and restoration. A more just and equitable future requires the active participation of all stakeholders, including the Tigrayan people. Collaborative efforts should focus on addressing systemic injustices and creating a federal system that ensures equitable representation and safeguards the rights of all ethnic groups.

Confronting Ethnic Scapegoating and Leadership Failures

Ethiopia’s political history is plagued by the phenomenon of ethnic scapegoating, where the failures of ruling elites are unjustly attributed to the ethnic group they represent. This dangerous pattern fosters stereotypes, discrimination, and collective punishment, as seen during the TPLF-EPRDF era and the recent war against Tigray. 

While The TPLF-led government achieved notable economic progress—such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare advancements, Ethiopians maintained political and economic sovereignty, and unrestricted movement was possible nationwide. Moreover, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was one of the most significant achievements of the TPLF-EPRDF. It also suffered from systemic flaws, including authoritarian practices, overemphasis on ethnic autonomy, and leadership arrogance. The regime displayed three fundamental flaws: narcissism, hubris, and Machiavellianism. While it championed national development in some areas, it violated democratic principles and constitutional safeguards. These failures were administrative errors and systemic flaws contributing to the nation’s political instability.

The rise of anti-Tigrayan sentiment during the recent war demonstrated the dangers of ethnic attribution bias or ethnic scapegoating. The actions of the TPLF leadership were used to justify widespread discrimination and violence against Tigrayans as a whole—an unjust and historically perilous approach by many people. This same pattern is evident under Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party, where Oromos have suffered stereotypes and discrimination. All this is done while systemic repression and military aggression is going on in the Oromo people despite Abiy’s Oromo heritage. This illustrates a critical reality: authoritarianism transcends ethnicity, and no ethnic group should bear collective blame for the actions of its leaders.

Abiy’s administration has exacerbated Ethiopia’s crises through wars, territorial concessions to Eritrea—-parts of northern Tigray, including Zalambessa in Gulomahda Woreda, and half of the Irob population is under the control of the Eritrean government and Sudan—the contested Al-Fashaga territories, and a collapsing economy. Moreover, he sold the nation’s economic sovereignty to the IMF. Instead of addressing pressing socio-economic issues, his government prioritizes symbolic projects, such as extravagant palace constructions and corridor developments, to bolster his legacy. Meanwhile, youth unemployment has soared, and the military has become one of the few viable employment options, fueling Abiy’s war-driven governance.

The lesson is clear: Ethiopia must hold its leaders accountable for their actions without resorting to ethnic scapegoating. Autocratic leaders may emerge from any ethnic group, but their tyranny reflects systemic governance failures, not the character of their people. Should Ethiopia fail to end this loop of misguided grievances, the nation would stay trapped in a deleterious pattern of ethnic blaming, overlooking the true origins of its crises—autocratic leadership and systemic deficiencies in administration.

Building a Just and Inclusive Future

The devastation in Tigray, marked by the loss of millions of lives, underscores the urgent need for unity and collective action. Tigray must not isolate itself but instead forge alliances with other ethnic groups to advocate for justice, democracy, and an inclusive federal system. The fight for an equitable Ethiopia demands cooperation among all ethnic groups, transcending divisions to challenge the oppressive force. A unified movement can pave the way for systemic reforms that protect ethnic identities while fostering national cohesion.

Ultimately, Ethiopia’s future depends on breaking the cycles of betrayal and scapegoating that have defined its past. By addressing systemic failures and prioritizing the well-being of its people, the nation can move toward peace, justice, and sustainable development.

XVIII. Historical Arc: Tigray’s Role in Ethiopia’s Narrative

The betrayal of Tigray represents a poignant and troubling chapter in the annals of Ethiopian history. It exemplifies a cautionary tale regarding the consequences of political leaders prioritizing the consolidation of power over the welfare of their constituents, particularly when the federal government perceives its citizens as adversaries. However, it is essential to recognize that history does not dictate destiny. People who reject the existing status quo can change the course of history to achieve justice through their collective actions.

A federation that fails to represent one of its regions cannot be considered entirely legitimate. Moreover, the government perpetrates serious offenses and exploits divisions among political elites to ill-treat the Tigrayan populace systematically. The disputed territories include the entirety of the Western Tigray zone—Welkait, Tsegede, and Humera woredas—the Tselemt woreda in the Northwestern Tigray zone, and the Raya-Azebo and Alamata woredas in the Southern Tigray zone. The regime manipulates these as a political instrument to exacerbate tensions between the Amhara and Tigray communities rather than provide a solution to the issue. Additionally, the delayed distribution of vital funds to Tigray constitutes a form of systemic punishment and a blatant disregard for the needs of the Tigrayan people.

XIX. Territorial Complexities: Navigating the Tigray-Amhara Dispute

Historical grievances, constitutional ambiguities, and demographic shifts deeply entrenched the territorial dispute between Tigray and Amhara. While this article does not aim to provide an exhaustive analysis of the dispute, it is essential to acknowledge its complexity and the need for a nuanced approach to resolution.

The dispute is further complicated by competing historical narratives. The Amhara region asserts that Tigray annexed the contested areas in the 1990s. At the same time, Tigray argues that its claims are supported by the pre-conflict administrative status and Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism and constitution. These conflicting perspectives make a straightforward resolution difficult, as legal interpretations, political interests, and local identities are deeply intertwined.

Given these challenges, one must approach any attempt at resolution with great caution. A purely legalistic solution, such as a referendum or constitutional ruling, may not address the underlying tensions. Similarly, unilateral political decisions risk exacerbating grievances and undermining long-term stability.

Several potential pathways could contribute to a sustainable resolution:

1. Inclusive Dialogue: A multi-stakeholder approach that brings together representatives from both regions, civil society, and federal actors to negotiate a mutually acceptable path forward.
2. Transitional Governance Arrangements: A temporary neutral administration of contested areas under federal oversight to prevent immediate confrontations while discussions continue.
3. Legal and Institutional Clarity: This involves reviewing constitutional mechanisms for territorial disputes to ensure clarity and fairness in adjudication processes.
4. Reconciliation and Justice Mechanisms: Addressing past grievances through truth commissions, historical documentation, and community-level peacebuilding efforts.
5. International Mediation and Support: Engaging regional organizations like the African Union to provide impartial mediation and conflict prevention mechanisms.

Resolving this dispute will require political will, compromises from all parties involved, and a commitment to long-term national cohesion. Any approach must carefully balance legal, political, and social considerations to ensure a solution that respects the rights of all affected communities while maintaining national stability.

I understand that my suggestions may not resonate with everyone involved; however, I am compelled to express what I believe to be pragmatic approaches toward fostering harmony. Both sides remain firmly entrenched in their positions, demonstrating a steadfast commitment to their respective stances. This rigidity has created an environment filled with palpable tension, as each party appears resolute in its unwillingness to consider compromise or negotiation. Such inflexible dedication to their viewpoints has made the situation increasingly susceptible to conflict, as neither side is ready to soften its demands or entertain alternative perspectives.

As a result, the potential for constructive engagement remains elusive, leaving both parties in a state of stalemate before negotiations have even begun. The urgency of the current situation demands immediate attention, and we can only resolve it through a mutually acceptable path forward, emphasizing the critical need for dialogue. Both sides must recognize that their entrenched positions, deeply rooted in their beliefs, act as barriers to progress and perpetuate the conflict.

They must come together, communicate openly, and seek common ground. Through constructive dialogue, they can begin to understand one another’s perspectives, identify shared interests, and collaboratively develop solutions that are acceptable to all. A genuine willingness to listen and negotiate is crucial.

XX. Forging Unity: Tigray’s Path from Discord to Harmony

It is disheartening to observe that the divide between the leading factions, TPLF and the Transitional Government of Tigray (TGT), remains insurmountable despite the concerted efforts of clergy, politicians, the Ethiopian patriarch, civil society organizations, and the Tigray Defense Force. When two factions obstinately refuse to engage with one another, they risk becoming entrenched in their discord. Genuine strength resides not in stubbornness but in the courage to pursue common ground and resolve differences for the greater good of the people of Tigray. A sincere willingness to comprehend diverse perspectives and seek a middle ground achieves true unity, not mere acquiescence.

A Call for Unity Amidst Diversity in Tigray: Our nation is currently contending with inter-ethnic conflicts, and within the Tigray region, sub-ethnic challenges are emerging within Awraga. What may have once been a subtle component of Tigrayan politics, primarily associated with the TPLF, has now become prominent, jeopardizing the very unity of Tigray itself due to the fragmentation of the TPLF. At this critical juncture, it is imperative to honor and celebrate the distinct cultures and traditions that form the rich tapestry of Tigray’s diversity. We must acknowledge that strength is derived from diversity, and by embracing this diversity, we can establish a foundation to rebuild and reinforce social cohesion. Collectively fostering a spirit of unity that transcends divisions is achievable, creating a Tigray that stands resolute in solidarity. By respecting and uplifting each unique identity, we can envision a brighter future—all voices are acknowledged, and traditions, customs, and beliefs are valued. It is essential to unite to nurture common bonds and construct a united Tigray for future generations.

A Message to Political Parties and Elites Advocating for Secession: The anguish, anger, and disbelief experienced by the Tigrayan populace in response to their federal government’s actions are profoundly understood. During this critical period, the expressions of those affected encapsulate the significant emotional and psychological distress that many are enduring. However, we must transcend these intense emotions to concentrate on a rational and sustainable solution for Tigrayans and all Ethiopians. It is essential to acknowledge that the same government responsible for the considerable suffering in Tigray is concurrently committing similar atrocities and war crimes in other regions of the country. This reality necessitates a unified response rather than a fragmented one. The path forward is anchored not in division but in collaboration.

Tigray represents not merely a region but a foundational element of Ethiopia and an integral aspect of our collective history. To build a brighter future, we must engage with other ethnic groups to develop a governance framework that upholds the rights and dignity of every community. Only through unity can we establish a nation that thrives on diversity and fosters peace, stability, and justice for all its citizens.

Political leaders should reassess their strategies and engage more substantively with the concerns of the general populace. A transition toward transparency and accountability could enhance trust and cooperation between leaders and citizens. Furthermore, the different factions of the political elite should refrain from utilizing religion, as demonstrated by the Gulabab or hijab ban in Axum schools and avoid involving armed forces or external influences in political affairs. They should also prevent exploiting regional divisions (Awraga, zone, woreda, and Kushet) for political leverage and dominance. These boundaries must remain uncrossed to foster unity, safety, harmony, and peace among the Tigrayan people.

Let us unite, transcend our differences, and strive for a governance framework that honors the distinct identities of each ethnic group while reinforcing our national cohesion. This approach is essential to ensure that a lasting solution elevates the Tigrayans and all Ethiopians, creating a pathway toward a harmonious and prosperous future.

To the people of Tigray: Your suffering has been profound, yet your spirit remains resilient. The power to reshape your future resides in your hands. Reject the inadequate leadership of the past and embrace a new vision of governance grounded in accountability, transparency, and authentic representation. Your resilience in adversity can serve as the cornerstone for a genuinely democratic and flourishing Tigray. The journey ahead may be lengthy and fraught with challenges; however, with each step toward justice, every act of reconstruction, and each demand for accountability, the aspiration for a revitalized Tigray draws closer to fruition.

XXI. Political Crossroads: Unity versus Fragmentation in Tigray

The precarious peace in Tigray is teetering on the brink of collapse. Recent reports of military factions aligning with the TPLF and calling for the dissolution or complete change of the Interim government pose a significant threat to regional stability. I hold deep respect for the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and their sacrifices and heroic actions during the war. However, the blatant overreach of military factions into political affairs not only jeopardizes the fragile peace but also threatens to ignite a devastating internal conflict. Rather than supporting the Tigrayan people and fostering unity, such actions intensify existing divisions and jeopardize any prospects for a peaceful resolution.

The aspirations of the Tigrayan people—specifically their desire for peace, the youth’s vision of a democratic multi-party system, and establishing a clear separation of powers between the state and the party—are critically endangered. 

Image credit to -Matias Samuel/Addis Standard- Please take this image as symbolic; we know there are other parties like Arena, etc.  Matias Samuel/Addis Standard

This instability presents Abiy Ahmed with a perilous opportunity to exploit existing divisions through a calculated “divide and conquer” strategy. Under the pretext of implementing the Pretoria Agreement, he could incite further violence, potentially precipitating a catastrophic internal conflict within Tigray. The consequences of such an outcome are unimaginable; Tigray’s future stability and democratic aspirations depend on overcoming this challenge and promoting unity.

It may be uncomfortable to admit, but the reality is that the defense force could become fragmented if political unity is not achieved promptly. This potential disintegration poses a significant danger and must be addressed with urgency. Those who observe the performance of the Transitional Government of Tigray (TGT) and the TPLF cannot help but see a torturous march that only exacerbates the suffering of the Tigrayan people and undermines their urgent needs. It is perplexing to witness groups that have fought side by side in the same theater of war, united by a common objective for the people of Tigray, now displaying such deep and irreconcilable differences. This may explain why the defense force has been compelled to enter the political arena; however, it requires great caution and restraint.

At this critical juncture, the TPLF and TGT must refocus their efforts on the needs, benefits, and well-being of the Tigrayan people. If you lack the vision and strategic capacity to lead effectively, it is time to step aside and make way for those who possess the energy, zeal, and capability to drive meaningful change. The urgency of the situation demands decisive action and a renewed commitment to the welfare of the Tigrayans. The time for unity and focused leadership is now; anything less is a disservice to the people you claim to represent.

To those who may believe Abiy has good intentions toward Tigray, it is a grotesque masquerade when someone who has caused you harm presents themselves as a caring friend. This duplicitous individual cloak his malicious intentions behind a facade of concern while reveling in the pain they inflict. His dishonest remarks exude insincerity as he pretends to empathize while covertly scheming your demise. It is a betrayal of the highest order—an insidious act that transforms trust into a weapon. This person embodies the very definition of hypocrisy, using the guise of care to manipulate and exploit, leaving you to navigate the treacherous waters of his deceit. He is not a friend; he is a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and his pretense of caring is nothing more than a cruel charade designed to mask his true, harmful nature.

The Tyrant’s Game: Abiy and His Political Puppets

Abiy, the autocratic leader, cloaked in a façade of detachment, shamelessly manipulates others to voice his sinister wishes while feigning innocence. His cadre is extensive, but two prominent figures stand out: Shimeles Abdissa and Daniel Kibret. This duplicitous charade not only reveals his moral bankruptcy but also exposes a cowardice that seeks to distance him from the consequences of his own malevolent agenda.

In this twisted game of puppetry, he hides behind the words of others, attempting to obscure the truth of his tyranny while unleashing a torrent of evil upon those who dare to oppose him. A striking example of this manipulation was Shimeles’ recent speech at the Chefe Oromia (Oromia Council) meeting on February 9^th, 2024, where he labeled the OLA as an internal threat and described Fano as an extremist force. He declared that they would fight to ensure these groups do not come near Arat Kilo, boasting that they had already dismantled the TPLF, yet insisted that more must be done to grind it into dust. Such rhetoric exemplifies the dangerous and incendiary nature of Abiy’s regime, as it seeks to incite division and violence while cloaking itself in a veneer of righteousness.

XXII. Tigray’s Future: Secession or Regime Change in Ethiopia

Reevaluating Secession: Political Rhetoric vs. Practical Feasibility

The Emotional Case for Secession

The discourse surrounding Tigray’s secession is deeply rooted in the suffering and betrayal experienced by its people. The federal government’s military assault, economic blockade, and systematic war crimes have led some Tigrayans to question the viability of coexistence within Ethiopia. The sheer scale of atrocities—indiscriminate killings, sexual violence, and deliberate destruction of infrastructure—has understandably fueled the belief that Tigray must forge its path to sovereignty. For many, secession is viewed not merely as a political necessity but as a moral imperative—an assertion of dignity, self-preservation, and the right to determine their future free from federal oppression.

Beyond immediate grievances, the argument for independence also draws upon historical struggles. The TPLF initially fought for self-rule in the 1970s, and some see the current situation as a continuation of that unfinished battle. The profound distrust between Tigray and the Ethiopian state, reinforced by recent events, makes secession emotionally compelling. However, while these grievances are legitimate, political sovereignty necessitates more than historical justification or moral arguments—it must also be economically, diplomatically, and militarily feasible. The harsh realities of independence present significant obstacles that cannot be overlooked.

The Economic and Geographic Challenges of Independence

One of Tigray’s most significant challenges to achieving independent status is its geographic and economic constraints. Unlike Eritrea, which had access to the Red Sea while pursuing independence, Tigray is a landlocked region, necessitating reliance on neighboring countries for trade routes. Ethiopia, which imposed a blockade on Tigray during the recent conflict, will likely deny access to its markets and transportation corridors. Although Sudan has historically shown some sympathy toward Tigray, its current instability and ongoing internal conflicts hinder its ability to support the region effectively. Furthermore, Eritrea, historically antagonistic toward Tigray, could leverage its control over strategic routes to isolate the area further.

In addition to challenges related to trade access, Tigray’s economic foundation is considerably fragile. The recent conflict has devastated agriculture, industry, and public infrastructure, resulting in a heavy dependence on humanitarian aid. Although an independent Tigray could theoretically develop its economy over time, it would initially face severe resource constraints, a lack of international investment, and difficulties securing external loans. The economic hardships stemming from isolation could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, leading to prolonged instability. Without transparent and sustainable economic strategies, pursuing independence risks substituting one form of suffering for another.

Security and Military Vulnerabilities

Even if Tigray declared independence, maintaining security would present a formidable challenge. Given the brutal conflict the Ethiopian federal government waged against Tigray, a peaceful secession is highly unlikely. A unilateral declaration of independence would almost certainly provoke military intervention from Addis Ababa, as Ethiopia would seek to avert further state fragmentation. Eritrea’s aggressive posture toward Tigray could reignite hostilities, further complicating the security landscape.

Unlike Eritrea in the 1990s, which possessed a well-prepared military infrastructure before independence, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) have been significantly weakened by years of conflict. Although the TDF demonstrated resilience during the recent war, sustaining long-term military security without external alliances would prove immensely challenging. If Ethiopia and Eritrea were to oppose an independent Tigray, the region could face a siege from multiple fronts.

Diplomatic Recognition and International Legitimacy

International recognition is essential for the success of any independence movement. United Nations recognition and broad international acceptance supported Eritrea’s successful bid for independence in 1993. Moreover, the friendship between the TPLF and EPLF facilitated the secession without the necessary negotiations or advocacy for Ethiopia’s broader interests. In contrast, Tigray lacks a major diplomatic sponsor advocating for its sovereignty. The African Union (AU) typically opposes secessionist movements based on its principles, which emphasize the maintenance of existing national borders. Western nations, despite their criticisms of the Ethiopian government’s human rights violations, prioritize Ethiopia’s territorial integrity because of strategic interests in the Horn of Africa.

Without diplomatic recognition, an independent Tigray would encounter significant challenges in engaging in global trade, securing international aid, and participating in multilateral organizations. This lack of recognition could cause prolonged regional isolation, limiting its capacity for rebuilding after years of conflict. Without recognition from major global powers, Tigray’s declaration of independence may remain symbolic rather than practical.

Political Divisions Within Tigray

The idea of secession is not fully supported by all in Tigray. While some believe that seeking independence is a justified response to feeling betrayed by the Ethiopian government, others argue that changing the government and reforming the federal system could be feasible. The jury is still out. Internal divisions among Tigrayan elites complicate the movement toward independence. The TPLF, which previously dominated Tigrayan politics, no longer monopolizes leadership; instead, multiple factions with varying visions for Tigray’s future have emerged. If Tigray’s political landscape continues to exhibit fragmentation, achieving a unified stance for independence will be problematic, potentially resulting in internal conflicts and weakened governance.

Beyond Secession: Tigray’s Role in Ethiopia’s Political Transformation

Instead of pursuing outright secession, an alternative strategy could involve redefining Tigray’s status within Ethiopia through regional autonomy and constitutional guarantees while simultaneously advocating for transforming the current federal government to one that acknowledges ethnic identities while promoting national unity. Many Ethiopians, not only Tigrayans, recognize that the existing system under Abiy Ahmed has failed the nation as a whole, exacerbating ethnic divisions, political repression, and economic decline.

The Tigrayan elite must redirect their efforts toward forging alliances with other marginalized ethnic groups and opposition forces to advocate for systemic change at the federal level. A reformed Ethiopia—characterized by genuine federalism, equitable development, and security for all ethnic groups—could provide a more sustainable resolution than fragmentation through secession. This strategy would prioritize:

1. Removal of the Abiy Regime and Establishment of Inclusive Governance: Collaborating with other oppressed ethnic groups and opposition movements to dismantle authoritarian rule and replace it with a genuinely representative government.
2. Legal Protections Against Future Federal Aggression: A reformed federal system could safeguard all regions against future military interventions.
3. Economic Reconstruction with International Support: Ethiopia’s remaining entity (under new governance structures) would facilitate access to international financial aid, economic recovery initiatives, and trade networks, mitigating the risks of total isolation.
4. International Justice Mechanisms for War Crimes: Rather than opting for complete disengagement, Tigray could leverage international legal frameworks to hold the Ethiopian government accountable while simultaneously advocating for broader systemic reforms.
5. A More Unified Ethiopian Opposition: Tigray’s struggle is not isolated; other Ethiopian regions also experience repression. A coalition-based opposition movement could work towards transforming Ethiopia rather than exacerbating its fragmentation.

The Need for Pragmatism and Collective Change

While the aspiration for secession is understandable and rooted in legitimate grievances, the practical feasibility of independence presents substantial challenges. Without stable trade routes, economic sustainability, military security, and diplomatic recognition, Tigray risks enduring prolonged hardship, further conflict, and more profound isolation.

A more strategic approach would prioritize strengthening Tigray’s autonomy while actively engaging in the broader Ethiopian opposition movement, which aims to replace the current government with one that guarantees the rights of all ethnic groups. Pursuing a more inclusive and equitable Ethiopia is a national cause that transcends mere Tigrayan interests. Rather than retreating into isolation, the Tigrayan elite should embrace a broader coalition for democratic change, ensuring that any chosen path secures its people’s safety, prosperity, and dignity while contributing to reimagining the Ethiopian state.

Ethiopian politics is a complex tapestry woven from the diverse aspirations of its ethnic groups. Each group or individual tends to align with specific political positions: very few support Abiy, who faces criticism for lacking a clear vision; some advocate for a unitary government, while others believe in making the existing ethnic federalism work. Additionally, many seek to refine ethnic federalism to promote national unity. Acknowledging this reality can be uncomfortable, but it is essential. 

Amidst this diversity lies a powerful potential for collaboration. Individuals from all ethnic backgrounds share common goals and values, creating opportunities for dialogue and partnership. Rather than feeling isolated, remember that you are not alone in your views. In these challenging times, it is crucial to hold onto hope. The harrowing experiences of the two-year war should not lead to despair or apathy; instead, let them inspire you to connect with your Ethiopian brothers and sisters. Together, you can forge a more inclusive and harmonious future for all.

The best course of action for Tigray is to build alliances with other Ethiopian ethnic groups to advocate for justice, democracy, and inclusive governance. By uniting in this effort, Tigray and other ethnic groups can strengthen their position and reduce the risk of being targeted individually by the autocratic government.

XXIII. Ethiopia’s Political Hydra: Navigating Fragmentation and Unity

Ethiopia’s political landscape under Abiy Ahmed resembles a multi-headed Hydra, with each decision potentially triggering far-reaching consequences. Abiy’s approach to addressing these challenges, particularly concerning Tigray, will significantly affect Ethiopia’s stability and unity.

One strategy for Abiy involves preventing Fano from securing support from Tigray factions. By exploiting divisions among Tigrayan elites, Abiy could perpetuate regional dysfunction, limiting Fano’s ability to form alliances. Additionally, Abiy might invoke territorial disputes with Eritrea as justification for military action, further destabilizing Tigray while advancing his ambitions in the Red Sea region. This move would escalate tensions with Eritrea and risk creating a broader regional crisis.

Alternatively, Abiy could maintain the status quo, allowing Tigray’s internal fragmentation to persist. This approach would ensure Tigray remains politically weak and marginalized within Ethiopia’s federal framework, potentially reducing its influence in upcoming national elections.

Unexpected realignments could shift the balance of power. A TPLF reconciliation with the EPLF, while improbable due to historical animosities, could significantly alter regional dynamics. Similarly, an alliance between the TPLF, Fano, and the OLA could form a formidable opposition to Abiy, though ideological differences and deep-seated mistrust present significant hurdles.

Abiy might seek a peace agreement with Eritrean President Isaias, using it to prevent Fano from receiving support from Eritrea and potentially continuing actions against Tigray. This strategy could buy Abiy time to consolidate power and address other opposition threats.

If the TPLF’s armed faction seizes control of Tigray, it might lead to a military dictatorship. While temporarily strengthening internal cohesion, this could provoke resistance from a population weary of authoritarian rule.

A particularly concerning scenario is the potential collapse of the Abiy regime due to the economic crisis and its inherent political weakness. This could lead to widespread chaos that would be detrimental to all regions, including Tigray. It underscores the urgent need for political elites from all ethnic groups to establish a common forum or coalition to avert potential destruction.

Throughout these scenarios, Tigray faces critical decisions about its future. While secession might seem appealing, it remains impractical and risky. A divided and isolated Tigray would be vulnerable to external manipulation. Instead, Tigray must recognize that Ethiopia’s unstable political system under Abiy lies at the root of its challenges.

The path forward for both Tigray and Ethiopia hinges on collective efforts to reform the nation’s political framework. This involves fostering internal unity within Tigray while building alliances with other ethnic groups to advocate for systemic reforms. These reforms should create an inclusive federal system that protects all ethnic identities while promoting national cohesion.

This approach aligns with the broader theme of transforming Ethiopia into a more just and stable nation rather than further fragmenting it. It requires navigating complex political waters, balancing ethnic interests with national unity, and remaining vigilant against attempts to exploit divisions for political gain. The success of this strategy could not only address Tigray’s immediate challenges and contribute to a more democratic and equitable Ethiopia for all its citizens.

XXIV. Action Imperative: Constructing a Just and Inclusive Ethiopia

To the people of Tigray: Your suffering has not gone unnoticed. Your resilience must now propel a movement toward new, accountable leadership. Reject leaders who prioritize their survival over your well-being. Demand governance that prioritizes the populace, not political interests.

To the international community: Do not allow the suffering of Tigrayans to fade from global consciousness. Demand accountability not only for war crimes but also for the systemic failures that precipitated this crisis. Provide support that reaches the populace rather than corrupt elites. Utilize diplomatic and economic leverage to advocate for genuine democratic reforms.

To the Ethiopian government: War wounds will not heal without justice. A stable and prosperous Tigray is vital for Ethiopia’s long-term stability. Uphold the Pretoria Agreement, ensure humanitarian access, and support authentic reconciliation. Address the root causes of conflict—federalism, equitable development, and ethnic inclusion.

Tigray’s betrayal is a tragedy, but its future does not have to be predetermined. A more vibrant and prosperous Tigray can emerge from the ruins through accountability, unity, and a commitment to meaningful change. The era of division and authoritarian control is over. Now is the moment to reclaim Tigray’s future—with leadership that genuinely serves its people.

XXV. Tigray Rising: The Phoenix from the Ashes

Tigray’s betrayal constitutes a monumental tragedy, but it need not signify the end of the narrative. I believe a new Tigray can emerge from the ashes of this devastation—one founded on the principles of justice, equality, and genuine self-determination. This rebirth will not be easy; it will require courage, sacrifice, and a readiness to confront uncomfortable truths. The old guard, which esteemed the amalgamation of state and party, now perceives a loss of their former pride and prestige as the enlightened and awakened factions advocate for their separation. They will cling to power, employing fear and division to maintain their grip. However, their time has expired. I believe the people of Tigray have awakened to the true nature of their betrayal and possess the agency to chart a new course. This new course must be inclusive, acknowledging the role that all Ethiopians must play in the healing and reconstruction of Tigray.

XXVI. A Call to Action: Forging Tigray’s Future, Transforming Ethiopia

To the author, Debre Damo Monastery, Axum Tsion Mariam, the Obelisk of Axum, Abuna Aregawi Afa’anti Church, Al-Nejashi Mosque, and countless other historical sites are indeed an inseparable part of Ethiopia’s rich heritage. They testify to Tigray’s profound contributions to Ethiopian civilization—monuments of faith, resilience, and history. However, I advocate unity not for these sacred places—it is for the people of Tigray, whose lives, dignity, and future matter above all else.

Tigray is not just a geographical region; it is the very heartbeat of Ethiopia—a region that has shaped the nation’s identity, defended its sovereignty, and enriched its culture. But what is a land without its people? What is history without those who live to carry it forward? No matter how grand, these monuments mean little if the people who built and preserved them are left abandoned, displaced, or in despair.

Thus, the call for unity is not about safeguarding stones and relics—it is about ensuring that Tigrayans, as a people, are protected, empowered, and afforded the future they deserve. 

To Leaders and Political Elites: Put aside personal ambitions and understand that Tigray’s stability and Ethiopia’s future are inseparable. Unite in purpose, lead with transparency and integrity, and pursue genuine dialogue and inclusive federalism. Your people’s needs must come first; true national unity comes through justice and equitable governance.

To the International Community and Ethiopian Civil Society: Stay engaged. Monitor peace agreements, support reconstruction, and maintain pressure for accountability. Be the bridge that challenges divisive narratives and creates spaces for dialogue. Help address the root causes that fueled this conflict and champion an Ethiopia that celebrates its diversity.

To the Youth and Diaspora: You are tomorrow’s architects. Think beyond ethnic divisions, engage in cross-cultural dialogue, and channel your global perspective and resources toward rebuilding. Be the generation that heals, not hurts.

The moment for transformation is now. Every voice matter in this journey of reconciliation. Let us turn Tigray’s tragedy into triumph—not in isolation, but in solidarity with a renewed Ethiopia. Your choice, voice, and action will be part of Tigray’s renaissance and Ethiopia’s rebirth. Unity is not about geography but standing together for justice, dignity, and shared prosperity. If Ethiopia is to move forward, it must first recognize that its greatest asset is not its monuments but its people.

XXVII. To the Leaders of the TPLF

Image credit to Martin Plaut

The cries of Tigray’s mothers echo across the land – cries born not of battle but of despair. The hope that flickered after the devastating conflict is now a dying ember, choked by the persistent divisions within your ranks. Your people, emerging from the ashes of war, face not the promise of peace but the chilling reality of renewed conflict, a fear that freezes the hearts of mothers and crushes the dreams of Tigray’s youth. This is your legacy. Is this the future you envision for your children?

The unwavering strength of Tigrayan mothers and resilience in the face of unimaginable hardship should be a testament to the power of unity. Yet, their fortitude is tested daily by leaders who should be their protectors. Their sons and daughters, brimming with potential, are robbed of their future by the ongoing strife. Their hope, once vibrant, is now a fragile whisper, quickly extinguished by the winds of discord.

I do not appeal to you out of naive optimism but a desperate plea for survival. Tigray’s challenges are immense—famine, displacement, and the ever-present threat of violence. These challenges cannot be overcome by fractured leadership or the petty squabbles of those who should be united in purpose.

Your divisions are not abstract political maneuvering; they cause real and lasting suffering. They are the reason mothers fear for their children’s lives, the reason youth see no future but war. They are the reason Tigray bleeds.

In the name of Tigray’s mothers, youth, and all those who sacrificed their lives for Tigray, I implore you to rise above your differences. We have witnessed the profound human cost of division, and it is time to unite for the sake of the Tigray people and their future. Lay down the weapons of division and pick up the tools of reconciliation. Engage in genuine dialogue, not for political expediency, but for the sake of your people. The stability of Tigray, your children’s future, and your nation’s very survival rests on your shoulders. Choose unity. Choose peace. Choose the well-being of Tigray’s mothers and youth. Choose a future where the laughter of children replaces the cries of despair. Choose hope. Choose to build, not to destroy. The time for action is now. The future of Tigray depends on it.

The news of the ongoing negotiations in Tigray is encouraging. I extend my best wishes for a successful outcome guided by wisdom, compassion, and an unwavering commitment to peace. May your deliberations pave the way for lasting reconciliation and a brighter future for the people of Tigray.

XXVIII. Conclusion: Tigray at a Crossroads—Healing Within, Leading Beyond with Others

Tigray has endured betrayal, war, and devastation, but its story must not end in victimhood. The people have shown unbreakable resilience, but survival alone is not enough. Now is the time for strategic leadership, internal unity, and a clear vision for the future.

Ethiopia’s silence, the failure of its institutions, and the complicity of its elites have exposed the fragility of a nation built on division and repression. Tigray must not allow its fate to be dictated by those who enabled its suffering. It must take control of its destiny—not through isolation but through leadership.

While some advocate for secession, the most significant victory for Tigray will not be retreating from Ethiopia but transforming it. Tigray’s struggle is not singular; other communities, such as Amhara and Oromo, endure similar brutality.

The proper fight is not for separation but for a just Ethiopia where no ethnic group experiences war, displacement, or state-sponsored violence.

The road forward is not without challenges. Reconciliation of political divisions, forging strategic alliances, and replacing old grievances with a new vision are necessary.  Tigray cannot afford to remain trapped in cycles of war and betrayal. The fight must now be for dignity, security, and lasting political transformation.

History will remember who stood in silence and who stood for justice. It will judge those who turned away but honor those who chose to rebuild, lead, and define a future beyond war.

Tigray’s survival depends on overcoming betrayal and uniting with other oppressed groups to transform Ethiopia into a nation where justice prevails.

A stronger Tigray. A united front. A just Ethiopia. A future worth building together.

Author Last Note:

A Call to Ethiopian People: Choose Peace Over Another Devastating War.

Our nation bleeds enough. As conflict already ravages parts of Oromia and Amhara, whispers of another war with Tigray should alarm us all. We cannot afford to repeat the horrors of the recent past—the mass casualties, the destroyed infrastructure, the torn families, and the deep wounds that have yet to heal. The last Tigray war has already cost us countless lives on all sides while our economy continues to struggle in its aftermath.

Our children deserve peace, not more trauma. Our precious resources should be invested in building schools and futures, not funding bullets and destruction. True unity can only come through peace, not violence. To remain silent now is to consent to more destruction. We must raise our voices against any move toward war. We must tell the Ethiopian leaders, incubators of war, firmly: no more war. It is time to share messages of peace, not hatred; to reject any propaganda that dehumanizes any Ethiopian group; to support dialogue and peaceful resolution; and to stand together against any push toward conflict.

Let us learn from our recent past. If war comes again to Tigray, our silence will make us complicit. Ethiopia needs healing, not more wounds. Our diversity is our strength, not our weakness. Let peace be our only path forward. The choice is ours, and the time to speak is now. We cannot afford to remain silent as the sounds of war resound. Our collective voice must rise for peace, our shared future, and the Ethiopia we all wish to build together.

Choosing peace opens the door to a brighter future for all Ethiopians. It paves the way for economic recovery and growth, redirecting resources from conflict to development. Peace allows for social healing and reconciliation, rebuilding trust between communities. It enables us to focus on improving education and healthcare, empowering our youth, and enhancing the well-being of all citizens. Our rich cultural heritage can flourish as we celebrate our diversity without fear. Peaceful dialogue can lead to more inclusive governance and a stronger democracy, making Ethiopia a cornerstone of regional stability. By choosing peace, we choose a path of hope, progress, and shared prosperity, where innovation thrives, and all Ethiopians can build a better future together.

#EthiopiansForPeace #NoMoreWar #ChoosePeace

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com

Subscribe: https://borkena.com/subscribe-borkena/

Join our Telegram Channel : t.me/borkena

Like borkena on Facebook

Add your business to Ethiopian Business Listing / Ethiopian Business Directory  

Join the conversation. Follow us on X (Formerly Twitter)  @zborkena to get the latest Ethiopian News updates regularly.  Subscribe to YouTube channel To share information or for submission, send e-mail to info@borkena.com