Letter to the Editor
By Tilahun Megerssa
independent analyst
The Biden administration has insisted on negotiation and withdrawal of forces from Tigray even at a time when much of the TPLF forces and leadership were decimated and the rest were on the run. When the fortunes of TPLF suddenly changed on the heels of their well-financed propaganda and mobilization machine and the misguided, control-freak policy of Abiy Ahmed, the US administration took a good watching post. It gave a chance for TPLF’s bloody adventure to overthrow the federal government “in a matter of days or weeks, latest”.
When TPLF’s plan to “cut the Djibouti supply line” and “march into the capital” became a mirage, the US basically declared a proposal for territorial swap at the perils of sanctions that can barely affect TPLF. Hooray! As it confirmed by its statement on the sanctions, that’s exactly what TPLF wanted in invading less protected zones rather than going for a serious fight for the western corridor that it dearly wants to execute its next plans.
The US as well as anybody who followed the situation would know that the war will not be over with the territorial swap that the (threat of) sanctions essentially propose. Once the swap happens, TPLF will definitely make sure that further talks break down. TPLF has never hidden its plans to bring about regime change and/or state collapse in the rest of Ethiopia as well as in Eritrea, either for its comeback to power or secession of Tigray if that doesn’t work. Getting the western corridor back and joining forces with Sudan and Egypt paves a huge path to achieving that plan. In accepting this essential first step of the US sanctions, the Abbey and Isaisas governments will simply turn themselves into sheeps waiting in their cages for their turn to be slaughtered. That’s why it would be foolhardy to expect them to tag along or bow for the threat of sanctions.
The war should have never started and should never continue, but peace can’t be achieved by imposing sanctions that perfectly suit the plans of the same TPLF that started it. In fact, by the timing and nature of the sanctions, the US has just blown the final whistle for the most bloody part of the war. God be with the innocent people of all sides!
The US sanctions: synchronized or coincidental, a whistle for more war
By Tilahun Megerssa, independent analyst
The Biden administration has insisted on negotiation and withdrawal of forces from Tigray even at a time when much of the TPLF forces and leadership were decimated and the rest were on the run. When the fortunes of TPLF suddenly changed on the heels of their well-financed propaganda and mobilization machine and the misguided, control-freak policy of Abiy Ahmed, the US administration took a good watching post. It gave a chance for TPLF’s bloody adventure to overthrow the federal government “in a matter of days or weeks, latest”.
When TPLF’s plan to “cut the Djibouti supply line” and “march into the capital” became a mirage, the US basically declared a proposal for territorial swap at the perils of sanctions that can barely affect TPLF. Hooray! As it confirmed by its statement on the sanctions, that’s exactly what TPLF wanted in invading less protected zones rather than going for a serious fight for the western corridor that it dearly wants to execute its next plans.
The US as well as anybody who followed the situation would know that the war will not be over with the territorial swap that the (threat of) sanctions essentially propose. Once the swap happens, TPLF will definitely make sure that further talks break down. TPLF has never hidden its plans to bring about regime change and/or state collapse in the rest of Ethiopia as well as in Eritrea, either for its comeback to power or secession of Tigray if that doesn’t work. Getting the western corridor back and joining forces with Sudan and Egypt paves a huge path to achieving that plan. In accepting this essential first step of the US sanctions, the Abbey and Isaisas governments will simply turn themselves into sheeps waiting in their cages for their turn to be slaughtered. That’s why it would be foolhardy to expect them to tag along or bow for the threat of sanctions.
The war should have never started and should never continue, but peace can’t be achieved by imposing sanctions that perfectly suit the plans of the same TPLF that started it. In fact, by the timing and nature of the sanctions, the US has just blown the final whistle for the most bloody part of the war. God be with the innocent people of all sides!
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