The views, statements and opinion in the article reflects that of the writer’s , NOT borkena.com ‘s
Dr. M. Omar Hashi
Don’t be fooled by the rhetoric of warmongering, the Horn of Africa— comprising Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia— shows more optimistic prospects than gloom.
The Horn of Africa is strategic nexus in the Indo-Pacific Theatre connecting Africa, the Middle East and Asia. The active and seemingly disparate involvement of China, the US, Egypt, the oil rich Arab Gulf states (UAE, Qatar and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) and Türkiye in recent events are positive signs of the Horn of Africa’s importance and its economic potentialities rather than the narrative of foreign actors sowing the seeds of war and destruction upon the region.
One can clearly see hope in events since the 2018 Ethiopia-Eritrea peace agreement despite the naysayers in achieving unprecedented economic integration and stabilization after a half century of devastating internal and external conflicts, famine, anarchy and instability. For number of reasons, the prospects for a wider regional peaceful outcome is tangible, real and should be welcomed by all the peoples of the Horn of Africa and the world. And here are the reasons why:
The Positive Role of Turkiye’s Mediation: The Ankara Process
The Ethiopia-Somalia dispute is set to be resolved in the final round of negotiations in the upcoming Ankara Conference on 17th September through the effective mediation of the Republic of Turkiye and in particular Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Prime Minister Abiy and President Hassan Sheikh are expected to attend the signing ceremony in Ankara.
The broad outline of the Ankara agreement stipulates the Federal Government of Somalia as the sole legal authority in granting use of territorial ports to neighboring states but which also recognizes Ethiopia’s priorities in safeguarding its economic, strategic and national security interests in the region vis-à-vis Somalia. This gives all parties what they need. Moreover, it is not just a political boost for Prime Minister Abiy and President Hassan Sheikh but also a momentous diplomatic victory for Turkiye in ending a dangerous situation between neighbors which could have escalated and become embroiled in the unresolved Egypt-Ethiopia impasse over the annual filling of the GERD dam.
Upcoming Ethiopia and Eritrea Agreement on Ports
The anticipated resumption of negotiations between Ethiopia and Eritrea for access to Eritrea’s ports, also within the Ankara Process, is yet another sign of the emergence of a peaceful New Horn of Africa. In 2018, Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a historic peace agreement that not only ended two decades of conflict but opened the corridors of economic integration. Despite the Tigray war and its ongoing fallout in the Oromo and Amhara regions, Eritrea and Ethiopia have become closer to peaceful economic integration than at any time since early 1990s. In fact, a working committee has submitted the technical evaluation for reconstruction of the transportation infrastructure connecting roads between Assab and Massawa ports to northern Ethiopia. The second phase of the Ankara process, namely, Ethiopia-Eritrea Agreement will further the positive trend after the resolution of the Somali-Ethiopia disagreement. Djibouti has also shown an eagerness to resolve its difference with Eritrea and it would not be surprising if there would be a Third Ankara Process between Eritrea and Djibouti.
The Horn of Africa and Indo Pacific Re-Alignment
Yet, there is no denying that the Horn of Africa has attracted the attention of rival political and military powers, in the context of the Indo-Pacific Re-alignment of global strategy, chiefly pursued by the US and China, and to a lesser extent India.
Somalia has been the most impacted by this new Great Power rivalry toward the Indo Pacific owing to its strategic location and natural resources. Once the epitome of state collapse and political disintegration, Somalia has truly undergone a great transformation in the last decade. The Somalia of 2024 is well on its way to emerging as an economic powerhouse through the imminent utilization of its vast and untapped hydrocarbons and mineral wealth- the last frontier in Africa.
Somalia’s Stabilization since 2012
Thanks to the efforts of Turkiye since 2012, the Somali Federal Republic has achieved political stabilization with the strengthening of Federalism and power sharing between the disparate internal actors.
Moreover, Somalia has effectively put together the legal frameworks for resource sharing between the Federal Government and Member States- which in turn has attracted international investment chiefly from Turkey, the United States, Italy and China. These agreements and the legal foundations have given Somalia a new status as emergent market and secured debt relief from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Credit Suisse and European Central Bank.
The AlShabaab terrorist threat to overrun the Federal government in Mogadishu and Federal Member States has now been effectively degraded. The strengthening of Federalism as the permanent political dispensation of Somalia as well as the 2023 offensives in Galmudug and Hirshabelle in conjunction with the disruption of financial extortion networks have de facto left the Al-Shabaab as a rootless and impotent actor.
In particular, with the expected election of Mahad Mohamed Salad in Galmudug State, the focal point for the extraction of the offshore hydrocarbon and uranium deposits, the political-security momentum towards permanent stabilization in Somalia has solidly turned against Al-Shabaab.
In conclusion, the underlying political reality of the Horn of Africa totally refutes the sensational warmongering rhetoric reported in mass media about an imminent regional military conflict between Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti- stemming exclusively from or in conjunction with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia, Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland to access to the Gulf of Eden, and the lingering Eritrea-Ethiopia impasse on the seaports. This discourse is misleading and fundamentally uninformed of the actual political events and trends toward integration between Horn of African nations since 2012 (Somalia) and 2018 (Ethiopia and Eritrea) respectively. Consequently, the prospects for peaceful resolution of conflicts in the Horn of Africa through the Ankara Process between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia have never looked better.
Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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