Sieged: Failed Foreign Policy of Abiy’s Regime

“ባለቤቱን ካልናቁ አጥሩን አይነቀንቁ“

“If you do not despise the owner, do not shake the fence”

Isael Ze Etiel                                                                                           September 09, 2024

After the coming of Abiy Ahmed into power, he came with an idea that he believes engaged the people who suffered by his former party called Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) to transform the people based on the public interest. He is highly engaged in accusing his former party for all destruction and crime committed on the people, but he keeps saying he and his team are clean from those allegations. In every speech he made, his propaganda machinery blamed EPRDF member part TPLF and to some extent dehumanized the Tigray people as beneficiaries, and all crime that he believed committed by TPLF was as part of Tigray people’s crime.

The first and most steps he took to sustain his power in the name of reform was to take measures or highly interfere in the security apparatus of the country in the name of Security Sector Reform (SSR), which he meant removing Tigreans officials of the security apparatus and replacing them by his personal loyalist Oromo officials. The National Defense Force was highly affected by Abiy’s SSR reform, as he called it, with qualified military personnel replaced by inexperienced and uneducated ”Yes Men” officials that could easily be manipulated by him to achieve his personal goals.

Since then, the approach and orientation of Ethiopian foreign policy were redefined, and the national interest of Ethiopia and the national security threat of Ethiopia were also re-identified. The approach and orientation of Ethiopian foreign policy were also changed from the inside-out approach to outside-in approach. 

The major change he made in the country was rejecting the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy in 1996 and revising it in 2002 by critiquing small portions of the document, like the policy mentioning Eritrea as a national security threat, the policy following a siege mentality approach, and overall it having unnecessary details regarding countries and national threats. When we see some facts and factors that were stated on the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy, the political dynamism in any of the Horn of African states has its own impact on Ethiopia, and what threatens the national interest of Horn African states today will also threaten the national interest of Ethiopia tomorrow. Each of the Horn African states can pose a threat to Ethiopia; for instance, Eritrea has been one of the headaches of Ethiopian security since the outbreak of war in 1998 and the state of deadlock or stalemate which lasted from 2000-2018. Ethiopia has almost harmonious relations with all neighbouring states except Eritrea until a joint friendship was signed between Ethiopia and Eritrea on July 08, 2018. Failed state Somalia is another security threat to Ethiopia since it is the city of terrorist organizations like Al-Shabab; the civil war in South Sudan since December 2013 posed the security threat to Ethiopia due to its spill-over effects. The policy and strategy also mention Ethiopia’s natural resources, especially the Nile, which is a potential resource that generates hydro-electric power but this potential resource is shared by Horn African states and riparian states (these states have a history of creating threats at different times of history until now).

After rejecting the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy, Abiy promoted the idea of ”Synergy” or ”Medemer”, or to be included, or to be together. In his Medemer book, he mentioned that Ethiopia lives with other countries with respect and collaboration, and that Ethiopia has no history of waging war on neighboring countries based on greedy interest and siege mentality, only to defend her sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Medemer foreign policy does not accept the international concept that states “there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies.” Instead, Medemer foreign policy believes that there is no idea called permanent friend or permanent enemies. In his Medemer book, his government gives priority to neighboring countries and raises national pride. Creating decent relations with neighboring countries makes the region a better place for the peoples in the region. The Medemer book mentions that if we have unstable neighbors, it has a spill-over effect in the region, so it suggested creating strong people-to-people relations and integrating economically, which brought us a similar destiny and future. Those things help to create trust among the countries and stop blaming each other that ”you give training, take cover, support my opposition group” and so on.

The current facts show that different, for instance, Abiy supports the Eritrean militant group and social movement that aims to overthrow the Isaias Afwerki regime, and he signed an MoU with the de facto State of Somali.

After rejecting the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy Abiy regime drafted the new foreign relations policy promotes the following main objectives:

• Upholding Ethiopia’s sovereignty and protecting its national interests.
• Strengthening regional economic and social cooperation and linkages.
• Working together for regional, continental, and global peace and security.
• Attracting foreign direct investment that can ensure the overall development of the country and create broad market opportunities for Ethiopian products.
• Expanding benefits from the field by promoting tourism attractions.
• Promoting the country’s history, culture, and heritage.
• Upholding the rights and interests of Ethiopians living abroad and facilitating opportunities for these interests to be protected by law, as well as for their participation in the comprehensive development activities of their country of origin.
• Considering national interests in major international issues while working through cooperation and negotiation.
• Ensuring mutual benefit by strengthening cooperation in the fair and joint use of cross-border water resources.

The draft document mentioned that in the origins and practices of foreign policy, the fundamental national interest of a country is to maintain its national existence, sovereignty, unity, security, and dignity, as well as to ensure sustainable economic development. Thus, the primary motivation of Ethiopia’s foreign policy is to protect national survival and security. While there are other significant issues and objectives, none precedes the importance of existence; therefore, ensuring this will be the main and foundational policy direction.

It is crucial to identify the key areas of focus that should serve as starting points when formulating a foreign relations policy. This includes not only the protection of national existence and security but also the achievement of various objectives. As the current global situation evolves, Ethiopia’s relations with its neighbors are improving and strengthening, making it inevitable that some starting points will change as a result.

Since Ethiopia established a modern government and began promoting its foreign relations policy, there have been changes that reflect the current political and economic landscape, as well as issues that remain constant. In connection with this, the country’s foreign relations and national security policy was established in 1994. Taking into account new trends and enduring issues that have arisen since its issuance, this revised Foreign Relations Policy has been prepared by focusing on the following five main issues and trends:

1. Nation building: the vision of nation-building may change in form and character, but it will always remain the primary starting point of foreign policy, as it requires constant and continuous effort. Since the vision of building a common political and economic society, as set forth by the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Ethiopia, is an unfinished task, maintaining peace and security to achieve this, tirelessly pursuing the establishment of a democratic system, ensuring rapid and sustainable development, and achieving equitable benefits are the primary priorities of the policy. These remain key issues.

2. National honor: protecting and promoting national honor and pride has been established as the starting point of the foreign relations policies of many countries. A country’s national identity is largely shaped by its history, recorded victories, and national challenges. Thus, national identity is viewed as a tool for achieving greater success and building a better country.

3. Protecting the rights and security of citizens: It is true that it is the responsibility of a country’s government to protect the rights, dignity, and interests of its citizens. This responsibility extends to citizens not only within the country but also abroad. Therefore, a citizen-oriented foreign relations policy and the conduct of diplomatic activities are considered fundamental starting points of foreign relations. Encouraging citizens to be stakeholders in their country’s affairs and to serve as ambassadors for Ethiopia’s image in the countries where they reside is also emphasized. Consequently, one of the key objectives of this policy is to create enabling conditions, both internally and externally, to build a political and economic society centered on Ethiopianism and to foster national consensus.

4. Regional geopolitical situation and regional integration: it is clear that the geopolitical changes that have occurred in our region in recent years, as well as the situation around the Red Sea and the alignment of forces, will significantly impact landlocked Ethiopia and the security of the region as a whole. Therefore, the regional geopolitical situation will continue to be one of the starting points of our foreign policy. Additionally, economic and social integration and connectivity in the region and across Africa are considered essential starting points of this policy. This, in turn, is crucial for the success of our initiatives and for a common and coordinated response to emerging events and trends both regionally and globally. Thus, the regional geopolitical situation, along with the opportunities and challenges posed by regional integration, should be regarded as foundational to Ethiopia policy.

5. Global situation and trends: we are currently in a period of international transition, and many changes are being observed in the global power alignment. On one hand, the international economic balance is shifting from the Western world to the Eastern world; on the other hand, it has moved from being concentrated under one power to being influenced by various economic powers. In addition to these two trends, it can be observed that the general process, which has been dominated by governments, is changing, and non-governmental forces and actors are gaining and developing different capacities.

The draft foreign policy focuses on the five main issues and trends that remain very important and critical. However, the practices and behavior of Abiy’s government differ significantly from what is outlined in the draft document.

The main policy strategies of the draft document focus on the following areas:

1. Peace Diplomacy: Ethiopia strongly believes that countries around the world should work together to ensure peace prevails globally. The country is a member of the World Association and a founding member of both the United Nations and the Organization of African Unity, which is headquartered at the African Union. The foreign relations policy promotes peace diplomacy as its primary strategy, stemming from the country’s deep commitment to peace and common security.

2. Economic Diplomacy: Ethiopia’s main foreign policy mission is to enhance its role in international trade and secure the benefits derived from it. The policy promotes the following focus areas to ensure that the country can capitalize on international trade links.

3. Citizen-Oriented Diplomacy: countries around the world perform many important functions through their citizens abroad. Currently, Ethiopians have a significant role to play in the global movement of their country. Citizen-based diplomacy views these individuals as integral to the country’s foreign relations network.

4. Public Diplomacy: In the field of international relations, it has been observed that the number of non-governmental actors who can influence foreign relations beyond the traditional government-to-government interactions is increasing. These actors have their own followers and mobilize society with diverse ideas and perspectives.

The draft foreign policy outlined various issues based on Abiy’s “Medemer” book and his Prosperity Party (PP). I personally had the opportunity to read and provide feedback on the draft foreign policy. While reading, I tried to compare it with different countries, especially our neighbor Kenya, and it appeared that much of its content was copied from Kenya’s foreign policy. What mattered was that the policy reflected the national interests of the country.

The draft policy addresses the current conflicting issues regarding port services and maritime affairs. It states that, following the continuous economic growth Ethiopia has achieved in recent years, it is important to enhance national capacity in the maritime and logistics sector and to develop a globally competitive and qualified workforce to efficiently manage the significant volume of trade income and expenditure. Additionally, given the country’s population and economic development, special attention is given to collaborating with neighboring countries that own ports.

Compared to other transport sectors, maritime transport plays a significant role in global trade and economic activity, accounting for 90% of the world’s export and import trade. Ethiopia is engaged in business by deploying a substantial number of ships in Africa, and this capacity needs to be strengthened.

In this context, the country promotes the belief that nations share a common responsibility to ensure that international maritime and shipping services are effective and safe. To ensure the safety of ships and sea travel, prevent environmental pollution during maritime activities, reduce the risk of accidents, and ensure that the global maritime industry provides efficient services, Ethiopia is committed to implementing the relevant provisions established at both continental and international levels.

The draft policy has addressed the following areas of focus:

1. Designing cooperation frameworks that enable access to streamlined port services and options.
2. Joint development of ports, ensuring reliable and safe port services, and strengthening the infrastructures that connect countries.
3. Recognizing the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden as shared environments, while asserting the country’s right to use them in accordance with international law.
4. Strengthening international cooperation with landlocked countries on common issues.
5. Diligently carrying out activities that expand Ethiopia’s access to seaports as permitted by international law.
6. Facilitating employment opportunities for seafarers trained in the country with international shipping companies.
7. Building comprehensive capacity to ensure the maritime interests and security of the country while working closely and cooperatively with neighboring countries.

As we can see from a partial view of the drafted foreign policy, it covers various issues and analyzes both the previous and current regional situations. The most surprising aspect is that, over the last six years, this draft foreign policy has still not been approved by the relevant authorities. This means that under Abiy’s regime, the country has lacked an official foreign policy until now. We have had a Ministry of Foreign Affairs without a coherent foreign policy; instead, the ministry has followed the unilateral directions and decisions of Abiy Ahmed.

While the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is staffed with well-qualified career diplomats and diplomacy experts, the recent reforms have primarily focused on personal interests and have resulted in the replacement of individuals with members of his own party and ethnic group in key positions. This undermines the need for high levels of expertise and professionalism in the ministry.

The current Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, Ambassador Taye Atskeselassie, has experience in diplomacy and international relations, but I believe Abiy interferes like he did in the national defense force and other security apparatus of the country. Abiy’s unilateral action on diplomacy and international relations creates chaos and conflict and has led to the country being besieged.

Unlike previous leaders, Abiy lacks maturity about diplomacy and international relations, and other areas have caused us problems. The world sees Ethiopia not as a powerhouse of the region but rather as a threat to the stability of the region. On September 17, 2021, Executive Order 14046 declared a national emergency in response to the situation in northern Ethiopia, citing threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy. The ongoing instability in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa continues to pose significant risks. As a result, the national emergency will be extended for another year beyond its initial expiration date of September 17, 2024. This decision was made because of Abiy’s regime’s wrong foreign policy and strategies.

Abiy signs an agreement with Somaliland, an unrecognized republic in the north of Somalia that self-declared independence in 1991. The agreement brought simmering conflicts to a boil and significantly contributed to regional instability in the Horn. The uncertainty about what followed these agreements, the regional tension increased, and the world condemned the MoU because it was against Somali sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The agreement is a memorandum of understanding (MOU), signed by Abdi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on January 2, granting Ethiopian naval forces access to twenty kilometers of Somaliland coastline for fifty years. In return, Abiy agreed that the Ethiopian government would engage in an “in-depth assessment” of Somaliland’s recognition. Somaliland also received a stake in Ethiopian Airlines.

In the weeks since the signing of these agreements, Washington has seemingly adhered to its “one-Somalia” policy, with several statements from top U.S. diplomats reiterating the United States’ support for Somalia’s territorial integrity. Similarly, the United Kingdom, one of Somaliland’s closest Western partners, has expressed deep concern over the MOU, encouraging restraint and reaffirming its support for Somalia’s territorial integrity. The Arab League, led by Egypt, has been steadfast in its support for Somalia. The African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have joined the international community in calling for restraint and have reiterated their support for Somalia’s territorial integrity. China has affirmed its unwavering support for Somalia’s sovereignty amidst Ethiopia’s unlawful MOU with Somaliland.

Abiy’s strategy, consistently relying on immature decisions and a lack of experience, undermines the Ethiopian diplomacy established by previous leaders. Abiy persistently attempts to deflect internal tensions through external distractions.  

After a “no war, no peace” situation with Eritrea in 2018, relations between the two countries began a new era of peace, and Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Prize, becoming a Peace Laureate. However, after two years, he initiated a new war in the northern part of the country and invited Eritrean military forces, which committed genocide in the Tigray regional state. Following the Pretoria Agreement signed between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), mistrust began to resurface between the two countries. Since Eritrea was part of the northern conflict and a stakeholder, Abiy ignored them and signed an agreement with the TPLF without engaging Eritrea and other actors involved in the Tigray war.

After a media war between the two countries, both governments have nearly ceased their diplomatic relations and other forms of interaction. Ethiopian Airlines stopped flights to Asmara, and the Eritrean government suspended Ethiopian Airlines’ bank account in Asmara. The Ethiopian government openly supports Brigade N’Hamedu, which met in Ethiopia to discuss how to overthrow Eritrea’s repressive dictatorship. Additionally, Abiy’s regime supports the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization (RSADO), founded in 1999; this group operates from bases located in Ethiopia, launching attacks into Eritrean territory.

One of the great achievements of the previous government was Ethiopia’s role in military diplomacy, especially in peacekeeping missions across Africa and other parts of the world. The Ethiopian National Defense Force was highly efficient and more effective in its peacekeeping missions during those times, but currently, because of Abiy’s regime’s military war crimes, the name of the Ethiopian peacekeeping army has been tarnished, and it is not selected by different countries to take part in peacekeeping missions in Africa. Recently, because of our leaders’ immature decisions, such as signing the MOU with Somaliland, we have been condemned and seen as a threat by neighboring countries and our allies. The former government (EPRDF) had good military diplomacy with Somalia, supporting the transitional government through military support by giving the lives of Ethiopian soldiers, which limited the expansion of terrorist groups in the region. Currently, the Somali government refuses to accept Ethiopian peacekeeping missions in its territory in the coming year with the end of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and the beginning of a new support mission. Namely, the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will feature the participation of troops from Burundi, Uganda, and Egypt.

Cairo and Mogadishu earlier this month signed a security agreement. This agreement has been seeking to strengthen Cairo’s influence in the Horn of Africa. The prospect of having Egyptian troops next door has raised concerns in Ethiopia. The foreign ministry of Ethiopia issued a statement saying the country “cannot stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilize the region.”

The situation in the region is even more concerning. Egypt and Somalia are set to hold joint military exercises in the Horn of Africa, which appears to be a show of force that could increase tensions between the two Arab League members and Ethiopia. All these activities are indicators of our foreign policy failures, but they represent a success for Egypt and Somalia in terms of military diplomacy.

Currently, Ethiopia is besieged due to Abiy’s policies, which stem from his madness and immaturity. The country has not had a coherent foreign policy since rejecting the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia’s Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy. We remain under the rule of one person who is deluded, which has led us to a failure of state. If we give Abiy more time, the country’s problems will become more complex, and war and conflict will become the new normal for us. Abiy only cares about his power and personal gains; the country and its people suffer as long as he remains in power. Over the last three years, he has destabilized the region, making it difficult to predict what will come next.

To conclude, this analysis has shown that Abiy Ahmed’s regime has significantly undermined Ethiopia’s foreign policy, leading to a precarious situation both domestically and internationally. Abiy’s approach, characterized by a lack of coherent strategy, impulsive decisions, and a focus on personal gains, has destabilized the region and brought Ethiopia to the brink of collapse. 

Abiy’s impulsive actions and decisions, often based on “Medemer” ideology rather than strategic considerations, have alienated allies and created distrust with neighboring countries. Ignoring established foreign policy, or rejecting the 1996 National Security Policy and Strategy without replacing it with a robust alternative, has left Ethiopia rudderless in a volatile region. Compromising national security, through the dismantling of the security apparatus and replacing experienced personnel with loyalists, has weakened Ethiopia’s capacity to defend its interests. 

The erosion of trust and credibility, due to Abiy’s actions such as the Somaliland MOU, has damaged Ethiopia’s standing in the international community and led to a loss of trust from allies. Internal conflict and instability, fueled by the Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia wars, exacerbated by Abiy’s decisions, has not only destabilized Ethiopia but also further complicated relations with regional partners.

Ethiopia’s current predicament underscores the need for a strong, well-defined, and consistent foreign policy. Abiy’s leadership has proven detrimental to the nation’s stability and security. Unless a more strategic and mature approach is adopted, Ethiopia will continue to face severe consequences, risking further instability and a loss of its regional influence. The Ethiopian proverb “ባለቤቱን ካልናቁ አጥሩን አይነቀንቁ” (If you do not despise the owner, do not shake the fence) provides a fitting metaphor for the current situation. The Ethiopian people have a right to demand a leader who prioritizes the nation’s well-being above personal ambitions and who understands the delicate balance of power in the region. Until this happens, Ethiopia’s future remains uncertain and its standing in the world will continue to diminish.

Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com

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