Aba Habtu
This article presents a concerned citizen’s perspective on the situation in Ethiopia following a significant confrontation between Somalia and Ethiopia, exacerbated by Egypt’s deployment of troops to Somalia. The Horn of Africa is recognized as one of the most complex geopolitical arenas globally, and it is my intention to emphasize how Abiy Ahmed and his Oromo Prosperity Party have led Ethiopia toward becoming a precarious geopolitical entity, the potential eruption of which could devastate the region and extend its impact worldwide.
Prior to Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power, Ethiopia was regarded as a pillar of stability within the volatile Horn of Africa. Despite grappling with internal challenges, including episodes of civilian unrest and regional conflicts, the nation managed to uphold a semblance of peace resonating throughout the region. However, in a mere six years under the governance of the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPDO)—which was founded on promises of inclusivity—Ethiopia has turned into a volatile geopolitical powder keg. The consequences of this transformation extend beyond its borders, posing threats to the already fragile dynamics of the Horn of Africa. The complexity and severity of Ethiopia’s current geopolitical crisis can be attributed to three primary factors: Abiy’s failure to comprehend the multifaceted nature of governance, the exclusionary ideology of Oromummaa adopted by the ruling party, and Abiy’s inherent character flaws that have fostered disloyalty and betrayal.
1. The Immaturity of Abiy Ahmed and His Prosperity Gospel
Abiy’s ascent to power was largely predicated on an image imbued with optimism and a self-perception of effective governance amid a multitude of intricate political realities. Nevertheless, his superficial approach, frequently articulated through a “prosperity gospel,” reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the nuances necessary for governance in a nation characterized by diverse ethnicities and histories. His decisions often stem from a misguided belief that sweeping reforms and bold declarations can rectify historical grievances and deeply rooted divisions among Ethiopia’s ethnic groups.
Motivated by ideological fervor, Abiy has embarked upon ambitious initiatives without sufficiently considering their potential repercussions, both for Ethiopian society and the geopolitical context of the Horn of Africa. Actions taken impulsively, such as the problematic memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, underscore a troubling tendency toward erratic decision-making that neglects the broader implications for regional stability. Abiy’s incapacity to adeptly navigate these complexities suggests a deficiency in the cognitive maturity essential for a leader overseeing a nation of over 120 million individuals situated in a precarious geopolitical environment.
2. The Voracious Nature of Oromummaa
The ruling Oromo Prosperity Party’s adoption of Oromummaa—a political ideology that seeks to establish dominance for the Oromo people—exacerbates Ethiopia’s internal challenges. This ideology, which aims for absolute control by the Oromo ethnic group across all societal dimensions, has escalated tensions with other ethnic groups, particularly the Amhara.
The ruling elite appears convinced that the present moment is opportune for realizing this agenda, given the fragmentation inflicted by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF) divisive policies over the preceding decades. As the socio-political fabric of Ethiopia deteriorates, the assertion of Oromo supremacy has manifested in a series of aggressive policies designed to solidify power. Abiy’s alignment with this ideology not only jeopardizes the inclusion of significant segments of the population but also heightens the existential concerns of other ethnic groups, particularly as they perceive an urgency in actions aimed at consolidating power before opposing forces can mount a challenge. This pursuit of hegemony demonstrates a reckless disregard for the foundational principles of national unity and harmony.
3. Abiy Ahmed’s Culture of Disloyalty and Deceit
One of the most detrimental aspects of Abiy’s leadership has been his normalization of disloyalty, treachery, and betrayal. Initially viewed as a reformist leader, his tenure has devolved into a narrative characterized by hypocrisy and inconsistency. The promises made upon his assumption of office have largely remained unfulfilled, leading to widespread disillusionment among those who initially supported him, including prominent figures such as Lema Megersa and Gedu Andargachew, who have been marginalized in favor of hardline Oromo nationalists.
Furthermore, Abiy’s management of the conflict with the TPLF illustrates a readiness to disregard collaboration and alliance-building, which are vital for national stability. His approach has culminated not only in significant loss of life and humanitarian crises but also in the creation of a hostile environment that undermines national integrity. By prioritizing loyalty to his party over the merits of a diverse coalition, Abiy risks alienating essential allies and exacerbating ethnic divisions.
The international community has largely overlooked the escalating violence and oppression in Ethiopia. The potential disintegration of a nation housing over 125 million individuals warrants urgent attention, as it poses threats that extend beyond the region and may reverberate globally. The crisis in Ethiopia, compounded by the ongoing turmoil in Sudan, threatens to unleash forces capable of destabilizing the broader Horn of Africa and beyond.
In conclusion, Abiy Ahmed’s leadership—marked by immature decision-making, perilous ideological ambitions, and a pervasive atmosphere of betrayal—has rendered him unable to effectively navigate Ethiopia through its intricate and challenging geopolitical landscape. Only through a concerted effort to resist division and pursue inclusivity can the country aspire to reclaim its role as a stabilizing force within the region, culminating in effective governance and peace. The path forward necessitates leaders who prioritize genuine reform, trust, and national unity—principles that, regrettably, have become overshadowed by deceit and unrest during Abiy’s administration.
Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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The argument that Abiy Ahmed is unfit to lead Ethiopia appears rooted more in personal animosity than in any objective assessment of his leadership. The criticisms fail to recognize that Ethiopia, before Abiy, was a nation under significant repression. He wasn’t an outsider when he took power but had been deeply involved in Ethiopia’s security and intelligence operations, giving him a unique perspective on the country’s challenges.
When Abiy came to power, one of his first major moves was to introduce reforms that brought long-denied freedoms to the people—free speech, open elections, and a government that embraced inclusivity. For the first time in decades, Ethiopians could speak freely. This newfound freedom allowed for the airing of grievances and deep-seated issues that had been suppressed for generations. Oromos and Muslims, long treated as second-class citizens, found their voices. This change, however, did not sit well with those who had benefitted from the old systems of inequality. The article’s portrayal of Abiy as promoting an “Oromummaa” agenda is completely baseless. If Abiy had an Oromo-first policy, the government would be dominated by Oromos, just as past regimes favored their own ethnic groups. But Abiy’s government is diverse and reflects Ethiopia’s ethnic makeup. The real issue is that Ethiopia is not accustomed to a leader who prioritizes unity over ethnic dominance.
It’s also worth mentioning that many of the same critics of Abiy today were once his biggest supporters. They praised him as a modern-day Prophet Moses, believing he would secure Amhara dominance. Their initial admiration turned to resentment when Abiy made it clear that his vision was for a unified Ethiopia, not one led by any single ethnic group. By dismantling the old systems of superiority and making ethnic favoritism obsolete, Abiy’s leadership hurt those who once held power, leading them to oppose him vehemently. The conflicts in Amhara and Tigray weren’t caused by Abiy. These regions destabilized themselves in an effort to undermine the central government. Their fight is not about defending Ethiopia but about preserving a vision of ethnic and regional power that no longer has a place in Abiy’s more inclusive governance. Furthermore, the economic challenges Ethiopia faces are part of a global reality. Inflation and rising living costs are issues affecting countries around the world. Blaming Abiy for global economic trends is unfair and unfounded. Nations like Canada and the U.S. also face these struggles, but their leaders aren’t being accused of causing global inflation.
Abiy is more than fit to lead Ethiopia. No other leader in modern times has had the foresight or the capability to manage such a complex and diverse nation. He is not a dictator like his predecessors, and under his leadership, Ethiopians have enjoyed unprecedented freedoms. His government isn’t perfect, but he has shown a commitment to the country’s progress that is unmatched. Those who cling to outdated ideas of ethnic superiority are the ones standing in the way of Ethiopia’s future. Abiy is a leader ahead of his time, and it will take years for many to appreciate the scope of his vision. Finally, addressing the claims of betrayal and disloyalty within Abiy’s administration reshuffling leaders and removing those unfit for governance is a common practice in politics, not a reflection of treachery. No political leader anywhere in the world holds onto individuals who no longer align with the needs of the nation. Those who have been replaced, like Lema Megersa and Gedu Andargachew, were not marginalized because of loyalty or betrayal, but because they no longer fit into the larger vision of Ethiopia’s progress. When it comes to national security and governance, loyalty to the country comes before personal or political ties.