“If Fano’s leadership fails to top-tier its core objectives—addressing the existential threat to the Amhara people, dismantling the genocidal regime, and securing lasting peace—the movement risks becoming disorganized and ineffective.”
By: Solomon A
Twitter: @sol_amhara
Since April 2023, the Ethiopian government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has escalated its assault into a full-scale war against the Amhara community. In response, Fano, a grassroots defense movement, rapidly evolved into a formidable resistance force. It took strategic control of several towns and engaged in fierce battles against the government. In the initial phases of the conflict, Fano swiftly mobilized and successfully captured key cities such as Gondar, Bahir Dar, and Lalibela, showcasing its military prowess. The Fano’s tactical superiority was evident in its dismantling of regime strongholds and the capture of numerous government soldiers. As noted by Crisis Group (2023), Fano’s ability to launch coordinated offensives underscored its organizational strength and the broad support it enjoyed among the Amhara people.
Now, over a year into the struggle against what many see as a genocidal regime, it is critical to intensify both military and political strategies. Only through concerted efforts can the Oromo-led government be dismantled, and the existential threat to the Amhara community neutralized. However, recent developments within Fano leadership reveal a troubling lack of strategic prioritization and a stalemate towards the main goal, removing the Abiy genocide regime. In the face of an active genocide and worsening conditions for the Amhara people, Fano’s leadership must reassess its approach to the war. The absence of strategic focus at such a critical juncture risk undermining the movement’s effectiveness, potentially leading to internal fragmentation, loss of momentum, and an extended conflict with minimal gains.
A key factor contributing to this crisis is the recent Fano leadership election, and in return failure to reach a consensus on leadership within Fano. This has deepened the challenges both within Ethiopia and among the Amhara diaspora, threatening unity at a time when cohesion is most critical. In times of existential war, selecting political and military leadership requires careful planning and strategic foresight. Ethiopia, with its long history, has yet to conduct a truly democratic election, and the complexities of organizing a fair democratic process in the current context are immense. It requires an understanding of cultural dynamics and political experience, both of which are currently lacking.
Attempting to enforce an electoral process within Fano at this early stage of resistance risks sowing confusion and deepening internal divisions. The recent leadership election has already exacerbated factionalism within the movement, weakening its unity at a time when a united front is essential. History shows that in wartime, the most effective leaders are often appointed by trusted delegates, ensuring continuity and focus, rather than through divisive elections. To avoid further fragmentation, Fano must learn from these historical precedents and adopt a more pragmatic approach to leadership selection.
If Fano’s leadership fails to top-tier its core objectives—addressing the existential threat to the Amhara people, dismantling the genocidal regime, and securing lasting peace—the movement risks becoming disorganized and ineffective. Moreover, if Fano does not concentrate on the two critical pillars of its resistance—a robust military force and a unified political council—it will struggle to advance the fight against the Oromo-led government. Without a clear strategic vision, the movement risks losing momentum and diminishing its capacity to achieve its ultimate goals.
The consequences of failing to course-correct are dire: fragmentation of resources, internal conflicts within Fano factions, and a potential loss of support from the Amhara communities both within Ethiopia and in the diaspora. A prolonged conflict could lead to a stalemate, draining the movement’s resources and energy.
The Amhara people have already paid an enormous price in the fight against Abiy Ahmed’s regime. According to a BBC Amharic report dated August 10, 2024, 5,500 schools are out of service, and the Human Rights Watch (HRW) reports that Ethiopian security forces have committed widespread war crimes against medical professionals, patients, and health facilities. No Amhara has escaped the atrocities committed under the current regime. The Amhara community, devastated by these atrocities, may not have the patience to see a disunited Fano leadership at the forefront of the struggle. This lack of unity risks disengaging the public and opening the movement to criticism. At this critical moment, Fano’s leadership has no choice but to unite—the Amhara people cannot afford to lose this war.
History provides clear lessons on what happens when leadership in liberation movements is divided, and a sense of stalemate sets in:
1. The Syrian Civil War: In Syria, opposition forces were highly fragmented, with different groups (moderates, Islamists, Kurds, and others) each pursuing their own agendas. This lack of unity and strategic prioritization allowed the Assad regime to remain in power and led to a protracted, devastating civil war. The opposition’s failure to present a unified front resulted in international hesitation to provide support, and the conflict dragged on, causing enormous civilian casualties, displacement, and the eventual fragmentation of resistance groups.
2. The Conflict in South Sudan: After South Sudan gained independence, internal conflicts broke out between different factions within the ruling party, each prioritizing their own political and ethnic interests. Instead of focusing on nation-building and peace, the country descended into civil war. Internal divisions and the lack of prioritization of national unity led to prolonged conflict, mass displacement, famine, and ongoing instability.
To overcome the current stalemate within the Fano movement, it is essential to establish a centralized and unified leadership structure capable of making decisive decisions and prioritizing goals effectively. Such leadership should have a clear vision and authority over various factions within the resistance to ensure unity and focused efforts. A prime example is the African National
Congress (ANC) during South Africa’s anti-apartheid struggle. Under Nelson Mandela’s centralized leadership, the ANC maintained clear priorities, such as peaceful negotiation and international pressure, even as armed struggle remained part of its strategy.
In addition, Fano’s leadership should focus on achievable short-term goals. Rather than focusing solely on toppling the genocidal regime, the movement should prioritize creating safe zones, controlling key territories, and securing international support. Success in these areas can build momentum and morale. A notable example is the fight against ISIS in Iraq, where coalition forces prioritized retaking strategic cities like Mosul, eventually leading to broader territorial gains and the defeat of ISIS.
Furthermore, it is crucial for Fano leadership to establish clear military-political coordination. Military actions must align with political objectives, such as survival, freedom, and justice. Uncoordinated military operations can result in unnecessary violence or the alienation of key allies and supporters.
The Fano military force and the political council operate on equal footing but share a symbiotic relationship, functioning as interdependent pillars of the Amhara movement.
In addition, the Fano military force engages in the following key leadership roles, coordinating battlefield tactics and executing large-scale operations. Providing crisis leadership during critical moments in conflict. While the political wing concentrates on governance and strategic planning, shaping the direction and objectives of the movement.
Furthermore, the Amhara Fano Council can focus on the following key areas,
1. Formulating a unified vision for the Amhara cause, setting long-term goals for resistance. 2. Establishing a formal governance structure in already Fano occupied Woredas and Kebels, creating laws and regulations to guide military and civilian operations.
3. Coordinating regional alliances with other ethnic or national movements to strengthen the broader resistance effort.
4. Diplomatic outreach and foreign relations, engaging with international actors to gain political, financial, and military support.
5. Managing resources and logistics, including securing funding, supplies, and humanitarian aid for those affected by the war.
6. Drafting strategic policies that shape both military and political operations, ensuring alignment between leadership and ground forces.
7. Developing propaganda and communication strategies, ensuring the message and goals of the Fano movement are effectively conveyed both locally and globally.
8. Facilitating constitutional development to guide the formation of future governance structures post-conflict.
9. Creating legal frameworks to legitimize and structure the Fano military force and political efforts, ensuring internal cohesion and discipline.
Finally, Fano must avoid any sign of stalemate at all costs. The Amhara fight against existential threat must avoid being stuck in prolonged conflict. This can be achieved by maintaining momentum through continuous engagement—militarily, diplomatically, and in public advocacy. Protracted conflicts lead to exhaustion and loss of support, so decisive action at key moments is crucial to victory.
The future of the Amhara people and their fight for survival depends on Fano’s ability to unify, strategize, and remain focused on the goal: the dismantling of the genocidal regime and the establishment of a peaceful, just future.
Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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The involvement of the regional power Tigray in the war can not be avoided if the Amhara forces push into Oromia and seize land. The Oromo dominated army is losing the war and sustaining high casualities according to sources in the Tigray defence force.(TDF). Oromia is the gift of Tigray to the Oromo people and there is consensus in the TDF to intervene and defend it