By Girmay Weldedawit
Society in The “Big” Man’s Eye
To grasp the unfolding events in Tigray, it is imperative to delve into the intentions of Abiy. Analyzing the situation without considering this crucial aspect would be both futile and fruitless. In this brief exposition, I endeavor to decipher Abiy’s overarching vision, which I believe elucidates the measures he is undertaking and those yet to come.
Abiy’s concept of “Medemer” has drawn comparisons to the idea of “synergy” by some reviewers of his book. However, it bears resemblance to Spencerian perspectives on society, suggesting that societies, much like biological organisms, progress from simpler forms to more complex ones. Within “Medemer,” Abiy appears to mirror the principles of System Growth, Differentiation, and Integration, which are fundamental aspects of Herbert Spencer’s theory of social evolution. Spencer’s vision of an Advanced society, having undergone these processes, aligns with Abiy’s depiction of “Medemer” as ክሱትነት/Ksutnet, while a fragmented society—Degenerated society, divided into smaller factions—corresponds to የብቸኝነት ጉድለት/Yebichegninet gudlet. The former represents a state of completeness, while the latter strays from the natural trajectory of societal development. Such a philosophy is not only perilously simplistic, but it also tends to disregard the grim realities of war, slavery, imperialism, and colonialism, portraying them as inevitable stages on the path to societal wholeness. These phenomena are not only inevitable but also significant contributors to the primary condition for societal evolution- System Growth.
Within his book lies another perilous notion: the belief that complete wholeness is an unattainable ideal. Societies progress in their pursuit of this ideal state. However, this perspective is hazardous because it suggests that any actions taken by society to achieve wholeness are natural and inevitable. Within such a philosophy, one cannot hold society accountable for embracing, for example, Nazi ideologies.
The book ‘Medemer’ is merely Abiy’s endeavor to cloak his imperial ambitions with a veneer of seductive societal philosophy.
From the various speeches delivered by Abiy Ahmed and his associates, it becomes apparent that Abiy envisions a “complete” Ethiopia—a unified entity established through an Oromo-dominated state apparatus. Contrary to Oromo nationalists who advocate for Oromo liberation, Abiy posits that Oromos have historically played a significant role in the formation of a robust Ethiopian state and are thus destined to lead it. In his view, Oromo leadership possesses the potential to unite Cushitic peoples both within and beyond Ethiopia, thereby expanding the nation’s influence and securing access to the sea. Abiy contends that the Oromo people, with their democratic traditions, culture of adoption, and high rates of intermarriage with other ethnic groups, form a substantial and cohesive population capable of achieving this vision. He contrasts this with the “Northerners”—Tigray and Amhara—whom he characterizes as possessing undemocratic and cruel cultures, thus implying that they could not achieve such unity. One of the contributions from the North to the impediment of the country’s progress is their adherence to traditional Orthodox religion.
Tigray and Abiy
From the beginning, it is crucial to clarify that Tigray has consistently misinterpreted Abiy’s rhetoric, mistakenly associating it with a past Ethiopia that Tigray viewed as being controlled by the Amhara nation. Abiy has manipulated this rhetoric to fuel hostility between the Amhara and Tigray.
The conflict between the Abiy-led Oromia Prosperity Party and Tigray didn’t originate from the latter’s aspiration to seize power, but rather from the former’s perception of Tigray and its cultural identity as a threat to its vision of a New Ethiopia. Abiy and his party envision a New Ethiopia where the dominance of “Northerner’s” values, referring to those of Amhara and Tigray, is diminished, aiming instead for Oromo control and the promotion of Pentecostal religion, particularly the Prosperity Gospel. Abiy’s imperialist agenda embodies both ethnic and religious tendencies.
Tigray, possessing political and military strength along with a strong sense of nationalism, in Abiy’s eye, might unite various ethnic groups, posing a challenge to Abiy’s aspirations. Consequently, Abiy initiated a genocidal campaign in Tigray, dubbing it a “Law Enforcement Operation” to mislead the international community, framing it as a response to former leaders who had allegedly embezzled funds during their 27-year rule and were now labeled as “terrorists” after losing power. It was inevitable that he would turn his attention to the other Northerners, the Amhara.
Ethnic kin turned imperialist foe
An imperialist, fueled by grand ambitions, frequently causes harm even to their own people. Nationalists, akin to imperialists, strive for the advancement of their group. Paradoxically, the imperialist, perceiving nationalists as impediments, may be driven to eliminate them, despite sharing the same ethnic background. To the imperialist, nationalists advocate for restricted territory and prosperity for their community, thereby becoming targets of the imperialist’s aspirations.
Abiy envisions a future for Ethiopia where Oromo influence holds sway. Yet, Oromo nationalists pose a significant obstacle to his vision. Abiy’s primary focus lies in the establishment of a Greater Oromia or a redefined Ethiopia, viewing the Regional State of Oromia as insignificantly small in its current form. He perceives Oromo nationalists as lacking foresight and views them, along with other ethno- and “ethio”-nationalists, as adversaries to the Oromo cause. Beyond the struggle for freedom and equality championed by Oromo nationalists, individuals of Oromo descent who adhere to Orthodox Christianity, Islam, or traditional Oromo values also challenge his envisioned path to prosperity.
Others too are in peril
What is less recognized, yet destined to become an undeniable reality, is that Abiy will also target other ethnic groups, Islam, and those ethio/civic nationalists working with him. Other ethnicities are in peril, given Abiy’s ambition to establish an Oromo controlled empire. The initial euphoria among some Muslims in the newly established Mejlis will soon dissipate once its true purpose is fulfilled. The Mejlis comprises individuals who perceive Muslims of Amhara and Tigray as “less devout”, they believe that their religious practices are heavily influenced by the Orthodox community, which historically oppressed Muslims. Consequently, the Mejlis is entrusted with undermining both ethnic groups from within. Once this objective is achieved, Islam will be in peril as per Abiy’s party manifesto, where he deems both Orthodox Christianity and Islam as impediments to prosperity.
A small faction of civic nationalists, who see Ethiopia as predominantly influenced by northern ethnic groups, support Abiy in the belief that his current initiative, despite its association with violence, will ultimately dismantle ethnic nationalism. These civic nationalists, I’ve heard, believe that benefiting the Oromo or at least making them feel prioritized could help curb Oromo nationalism. However, they will unfortunately realize their mistake when it’s too late to reverse course, as Abiy’s strategic goal is to build Oromo supremacy.
Tough but the only way out
Regrettably, it’s astonishing to witness leading members of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIRA) placing their trust in Abiy. There are leaders within TIRA who, being exhausted by the genocidal war, wrongly believe that had TPLF complied with Abiy and his party, there would have been no conflict in Tigray. The need for a potential Oromo-Tigray alliance among TIRA members has become a public secret. Getachew’s speeches convey a political message that supports such an alliance. I have suspected this possibility for some time, and I will highlight one significant event that I consider a hallmark in the formation of this alliance.
The merger between the Tigray Regional Islamic Affairs Council and the Ethiopian Islamic Affairs Supreme Council gained feasibility after TIRA verified that Amhara individuals advocating for conflict in Tigray no longer held positions of influence, and the Mejlis had transitioned to Oromo administration. It’s plausible for Menbere Selama to align with The Holy Synod of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church. Such integration might transpire upon TIRA’s assurance that prominent Amhara figures linked to atrocities are formally disavowed, and the synod’s governance shifts to Oromo leadership. It is a sundray fact that Abune Sawiros is hailed as lover of Tigray by those who support Getachew Reda.
Such an alliance is futile as it will only serve Abiy in weakening both Northerners.
Hence, it is imperative for Tigray to boldly expose Abiy’s imperial agenda and rally Ethiopians together against it. It is crucial for Tigray nationalists to recognize that the most significant threat at present stems from Abiy’s vision rather than that of Amhara nationalists and to advocate for cooperation with them. Through collaboration with Amhara nationalists, Tigray must openly demonstrate to the Ethiopian populace that a weakened Amhara and Tigray only serve to strengthen Abiy’s ability to suppress dissent and impose his ideology.
Drawing upon its extensive experience in nationalism and liberation movements, Tigary possesses significant potential to positively influence the burgeoning Amhara nationalist sentiment. Through its contributions, Tigary could play a pivotal role in shaping the rhetoric of Amhara nationalists, ensuring it does not pose a threat to the Oromo community. This will be important for fostering collaboration among Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo liberation struggles to forge a new political landscape that the EPRDF could not achieve.
Therefore, instead of adhering to an insular, autonomous stance amidst the challenges within Abiy’s Ethiopia, Tigray should embrace a more outward-facing approach, especially considering the increasing dissent towards Abiy’s government across various segments of society. By rallying diverse forces together, reminiscent of its efforts during the struggle against the Dergue regime, Tigray can cultivate unity and enhance its influence on the national stage.
Girmay Weldedawit, Former Lecturer At Arba Minch University, Department of Sociology and Social Anthrpology, is currently an Assylum seeker in Belgium.
Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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