TPLF mobilizing forces to different to the West, South of Tigray

Borkena

Toronto – TPLF faction Debretsion Gerbemichael is leading has reportedly moved troops in the South and West of the region signaling that it is about to start conflict in the region again. 

Sources with informants from the region say that the TPLF forces are heading towards Raya in the South and Telemet area in the west. If the reports are true, it means that the TPLF will be opening war against the Amhara region – where it has an irredentist claim over Wolkait and Raya. 

However, the number of troops mobilized is unspecified. About two years after the Pretoria Agreement – whose core arrangement was disarming armed forces in the region-, among other things, Debretsion disclosed that his party still had over 270,000 armed combatants.

Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration has been delayed on alleged grounds of funding issue and only about 5,000 armed combatants were disarmed. The latest report in that regard is that the TPLF halted DDR even for those combatants for whom funding was secured. 

There has been worry among Tigreans for many months now that the region could be engulfed in war again before recovering from the two years war between the TPLF administration and Abiy Ahmed’s administration. 

It was reported last week that residents in the region were crowding banks to withdraw cash in anticipation of an immediate outbreak of war. Initially, the conflict appeared as it was going to be between the two TPLF factions.  The faction under Debretions Gebremichal has support from the majority of the military commanders in the region. The other faction under Getachew Reda, who is currently leading the Interim administration in the region, has support from about 20 military generals. It is also said to have support from a section of the army and massive grassroot support. 

The Federal government nor the Tigray regional government have not remarked about TPLF’s reported latest move. Analysts anticipate that the Federal government could go to war against the TPLF. 

Tigray activists and politicians have been revealing anti-war sentiment in the region in recent months. It still remains a question whether the TPLF would go ahead in starting conflict in view of the anti-war sentiment in the region.  However, there are also recurring reports of a new alliance between the Debretsion group of TPLF and President Isaias’ government in Eritrea. Local sources reported that the TPLF is already given a training site in the Senafe area of Eritrea.   

The war between 2020 and 2022 is said to have claimed an estimated 1 million people from Afar, Amhara and Tigray regions of Ethiopia. 

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