By Atnafu Petros
Even though, the human and material casualties of the war in the Tigray and Amhara regions was not equal; was not as bloody as that of Tigray but it was and is as deadly serious as the two-year-old war of Tigray. The one-year-old armed conflict in the Amhara region has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths, and many more displaced. There were also extensive human rights violations by the Amhara people. The alleged human rights violations include but are not limited to massacres of the Amhara people, extrajudicial killings, drone attacks, forced displacement and mass arrests in and out of the region.
Reputed international human rights institutions reported that many civilians who were nothing to do with the conflict were massively and extrajudicially killed. For example, on August 18, 2023, Amnesty International received a report that 70 civilians were marked as attack by drone in Finote Selam, Bahir Dar and Shewa Robit.
The Amhara people also suffered mass and arbitrary arrests. At the outset of the conflict between the Fano forces and the government forces, the government reportedly detained over 4,500 ethnic Amhara individuals. This number increased to 14,000 when the emergency was declared in August 2023.
The UN reported that 66,153 people were displaced in 88 sites between August and September 2023, primarily due to ongoing fighting in the region.
It has to be borne in mind that the human rights violations reported by both international and national human rights institutions did not fully show the factual human rights violations on the ground. It is like a cup of water from the ocean. The atrocious violations of human rights in the region were much more than what has been already reported by human rights institutions.
while the main aim of this piece of article is not comparing the two deadly wars in the northernmost part of Ethiopia and the consequences of the war therefrom. It is also not this paper’s aim to echo human right violations alleged by international human rights institutions. Again, it is not also this writer’s aim to examine human right violations and atrocities because of the deadly war reduplicate numbers already reported by international and national human right institutions.
I do personally believe that the war in Amhara region has not received international attention from human rights institutions, EU, USA and international community at large as that of the war in Tigray region two years. Even though there was an endeavor to end the war through a peace process with facilitation from the USA and EU, it was not fruitful to this date. The diplomatic and economic pressures from notable states and institutions like IMF and WB on the Ethiopian government to end the conflict through peace deal and political solution was
So, the aim of this paper is why the international community turned blind eye to the war in the Amhara region? Why was the international community reluctant to this war even though it was one of the deadliest wars in contemporary Ethiopian history?
In the following few paragraphs, I will be dealt with the supposed reasons behind the scenes of the war. And I classify internal and external factors. And I want to remind the readers of this article, the reasons that will be mentioned subsequently are my supposed personal beliefs and not based on priorly conducted studies and investigations on the conflict of Amhara region.
I Internal Factors
A/ The Organization and Structure of the Fano Insurgents- Lack of Unified Military and Political Leadership
Unlike that of Tigray forces, the Fano Forces have no unified military and political leadership. The TPLF has unified military and political wings- The TPLF leads the political wing and the propaganda about the war and Tigray Defense Force (TDF) the military wing. It has a centralized command structure. Press releases and media communications about the war emanate from the central command.
The Fano forces are divided into factions. The Fano of Gonder, Gojjam, Shoa, Wollo, These Fano factions have different leaders and commanders. For instance, In Eastern Amhara, the Fano is led by a high-profile commander, Mihretu Wodajo. Another major Fano leader is Zemene Kassie, who operates in the Gojjam Zone. There are other less influential senior militia figures in North Shewa and Gondar. In May, Eskinder formed a new armed group, the Amhara Popular Front (distinct from the Amhara Fano Popular Movement mentioned above), partly to create a more cohesive resistance movement with the goal of toppling Abiy. Lack of centralized command structure led to scattered and split struggle against well-equipped government forces is challenging. Again, the Fano forces in shao led by two commandments, two in Gondar, one in Wollo, and others operating peripherally as Amhara popular forces.
There are individuals who advocate that the lack of single command political and military structure and organization does not affect the struggle of the Amhara Fano. These individuals do believe that in the process unifying Fano factions under a single command structure may affect the struggle because it may weaken the struggle in the time where the Fano factions’ calculus to become the top leader of the struggle. They cite the current rift between Zemen Kassie and Eskinder Nega.
Why is it important to have unified military and political leadership in Armed conflict? The first is as the saying goes, unity is a power. Unified struggle leads to coordination and to support each other. It makes the group strong and powerful. It is also easy to have a common goal and mission and easy to pass messages within the group and outside the group- to the international community. Second, some degree of cohesion is important in non-international armed conflicts so that the international community recognizes the insurgents in the conflict. It goes without saying that the diplomatic and other importances that the armed insurgent gets international
recognition. To have such recognition, the insurgents should have a unified command structure and operate under that command.
The current leadership battle between Zemene and Eskinder on one hand and within the Amhara Fano forces on the other hand is the lack of central command structure of the Fano forces. It is not the power struggle between two individuals but among the supporters of respective individuals and the tribes where the two individuals were from and it affects the whole Amhara people struggle. Hence, the necessity of morphing divided factions of different Fano forces into unified single command organization and structure is another goal yet to be achieved.
B/ Lack of Organized Digital Diplomacy
This is also the result of lack of organized political and military leadership within the Fano forces. Organized digital diplomacy is important to reveal the goal of the struggle, the human right violations by the government forces and to show the situation of the overall struggle.
The Fano forces lacked an organized and structured digital diplomacy wing that communicated to the local and international community about the situations of the war, casualties and alleged human right violations. The Fano forces in Gojjam or Gonder briefs about the war in its own operation area and others also do the same.
Of course, there are divided media outlets based locally and internationally that gave media coverage about the war, the situation of the Fano struggle and the human and material casualties of the conflict and human rights violations. But this divided digital diplomacy did not bear fruit as expected.
C/ Lack of clear Common Goal
The Fano forces have no common goal of struggle. Some Fano forces struggle avert the existential threat of the Amhara people. So that the means and end of these Fano groups is to save the survival rights of the Amhara people. They are only fighting for the freedom of the Amhara people. Other Fano groups consider themselves as fighting for the freedom of the whole Ethiopian people. They are fighting to save the country from collapsing. These groups of Fano do believe that if we heal Ethiopia, we can heal Amhara people. So, the goal of this group of Fano fighters is Ethiopia as a means and Amhara as an end. They do believe that “we cannot split Amhara from Ethiopia and Ethiopia from Amhara.”
There is also a lack of clear common goal when we examine the struggle of the Fano forces from the wider spectrum of Ethiopia. What is the end goal of the Fano struggle from the perspective of Ethiopia is not clear enough. It is not clear whether they are fighting for survival rights of the Amhara, to overthrow Abiy Ahmed’s government and to consolidate democratic government in Ethiopia.
Again, if we examine the Fano forces struggle from this point of view we have no clear answer from the Fano factions. To reinstate what has been aforementioned, some Fano forces mention
They struggle to bring out government change in Ethiopia, and other Fano forces mention they are only fighting to avert existential threat of Amhara people by the Abiy government.
D/ Lack of Inclusiveness
To be honest there are many individuals who are outside of Amhara ethnic group and origin including me who whim to support the Fano forces with their skill, money by sharing ideas and even to join them but they did not know how. In my opinion Fano forces have no clear roadmap how individuals outside ethnic Amhara would support the struggle. There are many supporters of Amhara people who struggle outside the region including non-Amhara’s.
II External Factors
A/ The war in Gaza and Ukraine
The ongoing war in Gaza between Israel forces and Hamas and the war in Ukraine by Russia forces shifted the focus from the Amhara region by the international community. Of course, the two wars started before the Amhara region war between the Fano forces and the Ethiopian government but we cannot say it had not affected the focus of the international community. So that the international community including human rights institutions had not properly condemned the war in the Amhara region.
Way out
The necessity of unified command structure in the Fano struggle is unquestionable to struggle with well-equipped government forces. The need for quality leadership and elite support alongside unified military and political leadership is also very important. Well organized digital diplomacy including hiring lobbyists and continued diaspora support is very vital for the struggle.
On top of this, having a clear common goal and road map is also important to bring out fruit from the Fano struggle. Last but not least, designing strategies on how the non-ethnic Amhara’s individuals can support the Fano struggle. This government is not only the enemy of the Amhara but the whole Ethiopian. So designing a strategy to struggle against a common enemy is crucial.
Footnote
The numbers cited about human rights violations in armed conflict in the Amhara region are taken from the human rights report of European Centre for Law and Justice published on April 26,2024; Amnesty international August 18,2023.
Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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there are also many fannos in the diasporaas such as fanno diaspora in Toronto(Borkena), in DC, Newtork(Ittu Abba Farda), fanno diaspora in mishigaan, in fanno diaspora in London.