By Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne
A Region on the Brink: Leadership in Turmoil
As the dust of history settles, Somalia finds itself teetering at a precarious crossroads. The presidency of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud once heralded as a beacon of hope for unity and reform, is now a spectacle of unraveling political crises. Experts and diplomats, both regional and international, are left perplexed by the intricate dance of power struggles that define the Somali political arena. Hassan Sheikh’s tenure, fraught with internal defiance, geopolitical rivalries, and institutional fragility, has become a litmus test for Somalia’s future.
From the defiance of Puntland and Jubaland to the geopolitical maneuverings of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, Somalia has become the focal point of a high-stakes regional contest. At the same time, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose foreign policy once floundered under the weight of missteps, has reemerged as a diplomatic force in the Horn. Both leaders, for better or worse, embody the complex dynamics of a region at odds with itself.
A Picture Worth a Thousand Words: Smiles Amid Tensions
A photograph can capture the essence of a moment, distilling complex emotions and layered narratives into a single frame. During Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s recent visit to Addis Ababa, a widely circulated image of him smiling broadly beside Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed encapsulated the high drama of the meeting.
The smile, radiant and unrestrained, was more than a display of warmth—it was a message. For those who saw the image, it seemed to say, “We are brothers.” Yet, beneath this expression of camaraderie lay a web of geopolitical tensions, historical grievances, and unspoken rivalries that could not be masked by gestures alone.
A Nation Distracted: Al-Shabaab’s Respite Amidst Political Chaos
As Somalia grapples with its internal political strife, Al-Shabaab—a perennial threat to the nation’s stability—seems to have gained an unintentional reprieve. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration has shifted its focus toward managing a fractured federal structure and consolidating its political position, leaving counterterrorism efforts seemingly deprioritized.
While Hassan Sheikh’s initial military campaigns against Al-Shabaab gained momentum, the group has weathered the pressure and continued its insurgency, exploiting Somalia’s political distractions. Analysts suggest that the group benefits when federal and state governments remain at odds, as disunity weakens the nation’s capacity for coordinated action.
The Fragile Pillars: Puntland, Jubaland, and Federal Collapse
Somalia’s federal structure, designed to distribute power and foster unity, is unraveling. Puntland and Jubaland, two semi-autonomous regions, have become symbols of defiance against Mogadishu’s perceived centralization. Their grievances—ranging from resource allocation to political marginalization—have exposed the cracks in Somalia’s governance framework.
Without meaningful dialogue and compromise, the federal vision risks collapse. Hassan Sheikh’s inability to bring these regions into the fold has left his administration vulnerable to fragmentation. Critics argue that his presidency is losing the trust of key stakeholders, accelerating the nation’s descent into division.
The Chessboard of the Horn: Egypt, Ethiopia, and Eritrea’s Competing Agendas
Somalia’s internal fragility has created a vacuum that regional powers are eager to fill. Egypt, Ethiopia, and Eritrea have turned Somalia into a geopolitical chessboard, each advancing its own agenda. Egypt, driven by its existential concerns over the Nile, has fortified its military ties with Somalia. Ethiopia, seeking to reclaim its influence, has re-engaged with Mogadishu and positioned itself as a stabilizing force in the African Union Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSOM).
Eritrea, ever opportunistic, maneuvers subtly, aligning where it sees a strategic advantage. For Hassan Sheikh, these competing interests are a double-edged sword, offering resources and alliances but also threatening Somalia’s sovereignty.
Ankara Accord: A Diplomatic Turning Point for Abiy Ahmed
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose diplomatic standing suffered amid Ethiopia’s internal conflicts and regional tensions, has found redemption in the Ankara Accord. The Turkish-brokered agreement helped thaw relations between Ethiopia and Somalia after years of mistrust. While not a panacea, it marked a shift in Ethiopia’s foreign policy, signaling a move toward cooperation rather than confrontation.
The Ankara Accord has allowed Abiy to reassert Ethiopia’s relevance in the Horn, positioning Addis Ababa as a key player in Somalia’s stabilization efforts. This shift reflects a newfound pragmatism in Abiy’s approach, a far cry from the diplomatic failures of the past.
Addis Ababa and Cairo: A Clash of Competing Agendas
The rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt is a microcosm of the broader tensions in the Horn. Both nations seek influence in Somalia, but their conflicting interests threaten to undermine efforts for stability. Egypt’s growing military presence in Somalia, coupled with its push for leadership in AUSOM, has raised alarm bells in Addis Ababa.
For Somalia, balancing these two powers is a delicate act. Hassan Sheikh’s recent visit to Addis Ababa, marked by a conspicuous warmth between him and Abiy, signaled a strategic alignment. Yet, this rapprochement risks alienating Cairo, which views Ethiopia as its primary rival in the region.
Abiy Ahmed’s Strategic Comeback: Credit Where It’s Due
As Somalis say, dil gaalka gartiisana sii—punish your opponent but give them their due justice. For all his flaws, Dr. Abiy Ahmed deserves credit for recalibrating Ethiopia’s foreign policy. His engagement with Somalia, participation in AUSOM, and improved relations with Mogadishu reflect a strategic maturity that was absent in earlier years.
Compared to last year’s diplomatic failures, Abiy’s recent moves demonstrate a clear vision for Ethiopia’s role in the Horn. By balancing regional alliances and addressing past grievances, he has positioned Ethiopia as a credible partner in Somalia’s stabilization.
Hassan Sheikh’s Nightmare: Internal Fragmentation and Diplomatic Isolation
While Abiy Ahmed charts a path of redemption, Hassan Sheikh faces a nightmare scenario. Puntland and Jubaland’s defiance, coupled with mounting skepticism from Somali politicians, has left his presidency severely wounded. Many believe that the federal structure is on the verge of collapse and that Hassan Sheikh lacks the political capital to turn the tide.
Critics argue that his administration’s focus on external alliances has come at the expense of internal cohesion. If Puntland and Jubaland are not brought back into the fold, Somalia risks descending into a new era of fragmentation, leaving Hassan Sheikh’s presidency as a cautionary tale of missed opportunities.
AUSOM as a Theater of Rivalry: Somalia in a Diplomatic Tug-of-War
The African Union Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSOM) was conceived as a platform for peace, but it has become a battleground for competing interests. Egypt, Ethiopia, and Eritrea view the mission as a means to advance their regional agendas, often at the expense of Somalia’s sovereignty.
For Hassan Sheikh, ensuring AUSOM’s success requires navigating these rivalries with tact and resolve. Failure to do so risks turning the mission into a tool of division rather than a force for unity.
The Crisis of Confidence: A Federal Vision in Ruins
Somalia’s federal system, once a symbol of hope, now appears to be unraveling. Politicians and analysts alike rate Hassan Sheikh’s leadership as ineffective in addressing the nation’s most pressing challenges. With Puntland and Jubaland drifting further from Mogadishu, many fear that Somalia is on the brink of political implosion.
The competition among regional powers only exacerbates this fragility. As Somalia becomes a stage for external rivalries, the federal government risks losing control, leaving the nation vulnerable to division and exploitation.
The Path Forward: Redemption or Ruin in the Horn
The fates of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Abiy Ahmed are intertwined with the future of the Horn of Africa. For Hassan Sheikh, the path to redemption lies in rebuilding trust with federal states, asserting Somalia’s sovereignty, and fostering unity in the face of external pressures.
For Abiy Ahmed, his diplomatic resurgence must be sustained through consistent engagement and a commitment to regional stability. While both leaders face significant challenges, their actions in the coming months will shape the trajectory of the Horn for years to come.
The stakes are high, and the clock is ticking. The question remains: can Hassan Sheikh salvage his presidency, or will Somalia’s fragile federal vision collapse under the weight of its contradictions? Only time will tell, but the world watches closely as the Horn of Africa stands on the cusp of either transformation or tragedy.
The writer can be reached at : +251900644648
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Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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In this story the current President of Somalia went an extra mile to assert his commitment to peaceful coexistence between his country and Ethiopia. In this laying of wreath at the war memorial in Addis/Finfinne, he is conveying the message from the noble people Somalia that they will never forget the sacrifices their Ethiopia neighbors paid with their Allah Blessed lives to save them from the wrath of fanatic demons.
hornobserver.com/articles/3122/Somalia-President-pays-tribute-to-Ethiopian-fallen-Soldiers-restores-diplomatic-ties