By Abdirezak Sahane
The fragile federal system in Somalia is under significant strain, as political conflicts and power struggles threaten to destabilize the progress made since the country’s state collapse in 1991. After the central government fell, the Somali people made numerous attempts to rebuild their nation, culminating in 2000 with an agreement among Somali representatives to establish a governance system aimed at reuniting the country.
This agreement led to the introduction of the 4.5 system, a clan-based power-sharing model. This system distributed political power among Somalia’s clans and facilitated the creation of the first interim government since 2000. Over the years, Somali leaders worked to improve this governance structure, reaching a political consensus to transition to a federal system. Today, Somalia operates under this federal framework, which comprises five regional states.
Challenges Under the Federal System
While the federal system has provided a foundation for governance, it remains fragile and immature, facing numerous challenges. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who served as Somalia’s leader from 2012 to 2016 and was re-elected in 2022, has faced significant criticism for his handling of federal relations. During his second presidential campaign, he popularized the slogan “Somali heshiis ah, dadka kalana heshiis la’ah” Somalis united internally and reached agreements with others.”). However, his actions since taking office have been perceived as divisive and contrary to this message.
Escalating Conflicts with Federal States
After assuming office, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud initiated disputes with Puntland, one of Somalia’s key federal states. These tensions soon extended to Jubaland, led by President Ahmed Madobe. The central issue revolves around Hassan Sheikh’s electoral reform agenda, specifically his push for a “one person, one vote” electoral model. Critics argue that this agenda is unrealistic given Somalia’s current political and security conditions and is being used to justify extending his presidency beyond its mandated term.
Hassan Sheikh also proposed extending the mandates of regional state leaders without consulting the people, a move widely regarded as unconstitutional. While some states, such as Hirshabelle and Southwest, accepted these extensions, Jubaland firmly rejected them. President Ahmed Madobe held elections in Jubaland last month despite pressure from the central government, further escalating tensions.
Military Intervention and Resistance
In response to Jubaland’s defiance, President Hassan Sheikh deployed federal troops to Raskamboni, a key area in Jubaland, with the apparent aim of arresting President Ahmed Madobe. This move was met with strong resistance from Jubaland’s leadership, security forces and its people, who viewed it as an infringement on their autonomy. Ahmed Madobe and the Jubaland administration mounted a defense, reinforcing their position as protectors of regional self-administration within the federal framework.
Somalia’s federal officials are currently trapped in deep political illusions, leading to a disastrous and painful conflict between the Somalia Federal National Army (SNA) and the Jubaland local forces. This political failure is not only damaging the country’s present situation but also jeopardizing the future of Somalia’s state-building efforts.
At the center of this political turmoil is President Hassan Sheikh, whose failed leadership and misguided decisions have precipitated the current crisis. Hassan Sheikh appears intent on monopolizing the country’s politics and the upcoming 2026 elections by promoting the flawed concept of “one person, one vote.” Such an approach is ill-suited for a fragile state like Somalia, and it is evident that his intentions are not aligned with the nation’s best interests.
Hassan Sheikh seemingly has a hidden agenda to undermine the constitutionally established regional state of Jubaland. By deploying troops to attack Jubaland and attempting to arrest its newly elected president, Ahmed Mohamed Islam, he has escalated tensions and caused unnecessary bloodshed.
The people of Somalia are closely observing this conflict, and it is clear that Ahmed Islam cannot bear the responsibility for the loss of lives and property damage in today’s war in Raaskamboni, Jubaland. The Federal Government, under Hassan Sheikh’s leadership, must take accountability for the unconstitutional and immoral actions that have led to this crisis.
It is heartbreaking to witness this fratricidal war, and finding a peaceful resolution is essential to prevent further bloodshed and destruction. President Hassan Sheikh must be held accountable for his actions and the devastating consequences of today’s conflict.
Some Somali political figures have expressed their concern over the ongoing conflict caused by Hassan Sheikh’s leadership failure. Former President Sheikh Sharif, former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire, and Abdirahman Abdishakur have all made statements addressing the issue after the war between the SNA, sent by Hassan Sheikh, and Jubaland State forces began in Raaskambooni.
Personally, I appreciate their wise understanding of the situation, but this must continue strongly. Somali elites must unite over this issue to stop Hassan Sheikh’s destructive ambitions.
Implications for Somalia’s Federal Future
These escalating disputes have exposed the underlying weaknesses in Somalia’s federal system. Rather than fostering unity, the federal arrangement has become a battleground for political maneuvering and power consolidation. The fragile trust between the central government and the federal states is eroding, threatening to unravel the hard-fought gains of the past two decades.
Somalia’s federal system was designed to balance power and provide autonomy to regional states, but these principles are increasingly being undermined. The central government’s attempts to centralize authority, coupled with resistance from regional leaders, risk plunging the country into further instability.
Path Forward
To address these challenges, Somalia’s leadership must prioritize dialogue and inclusivity. Rebuilding trust between the federal government and regional states is essential to preserving the integrity of the federal system. Electoral reforms and governance decisions must be based on consensus and respect for the constitutional framework, rather than unilateral actions that fuel divisions.
Without a renewed commitment to cooperative governance, the political conflicts in Somalia could escalate, jeopardizing the fragile progress made in rebuilding the nation. The stakes are high, and the country’s leadership must rise to the challenge of navigating these complexities to secure a stable and united Somalia.
Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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