Ethnic Identity and Political Centralization: The Hidden Agendas of Abiy Ahmed and Slobodan Milošević

By Caleb T (Dr.) 

Abstract

This article explores the role of ethnic identity in the political strategies of two prominent leaders, Slobodan Milošević and Abiy Ahmed, with a focus on how their manipulation of ethnic identity served hidden agendas aimed at political centralization and power consolidation. Milošević’s ethnic nationalism fueled the creation of a Greater Serbia and led to the disintegration of Yugoslavia, while Abiy Ahmed’s attempts to transcend Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism masked his true intentions of consolidating power within his own political faction, the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP). Abiy’s efforts to centralize political control under the guise of national unity—often presented through Oromo language and culture—revealed a hidden agenda aimed at securing the political and economic dominance of his ethnic group and political allies. This comparative study highlights how both leaders utilized ethnic identity to justify authoritarian power grabs, and the consequences of these strategies on their countries.

Introduction

The manipulation of ethnic identity is a potent political tool used by leaders to consolidate power, especially in multi-ethnic societies where ethnic divisions are prominent. While some leaders openly promote ethnic nationalism, others—like Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia and Slobodan Milošević of Serbia—frame their political strategies as efforts to transcend ethnic divisions. However, beneath their rhetoric lies a strategic use of ethnic identity to centralize power, challenge rival groups, and reconfigure the political order to benefit their own factions. This article compares the hidden political agendas of Abiy Ahmed and Slobodan Milošević, focusing on how both leaders utilized ethnic identity to justify authoritarian practices, suppress opposition, and consolidate their power.

Abiy Ahmed: Hidden Agendas Behind Unity Rhetoric

Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia’s Prime Minister in 2018 amidst widespread calls for unity and reform. His initial platform promised to dismantle the ethnic federalism that had governed Ethiopia since the 1990s, aiming to build a unified Ethiopian identity (Kebbede, 2020). This political move was seen as an effort to transcend the ethnic divisions that had plagued Ethiopian politics. However, critics argue that Abiy’s actions were less about unifying Ethiopia and more about consolidating power within his own political faction—the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP), which he led.

Abiy’s push for a more centralized state, which replaced ethnic federalism with a system centered on a pan-Ethiopian identity, was presented as a step towards national reconciliation. Yet, in practice, this effort has often been seen as an attempt to secure political and economic dominance for his own ethnic group, the Oromo, and particularly for the Oromo political elite supporting his party (Kebbede, 2021). His approach to centralization was not aimed at benefiting all Oromos, but rather at empowering his faction and securing loyalty from key political figures within the OPP. This strategy allowed Abiy to frame his political agenda in inclusive terms, using Oromo culture and language to promote unity while consolidating control over the state apparatus and reducing the influence of rival ethnic groups.

Abiy’s hidden agenda, like Milošević’s, involved the strategic use of ethnic identity to justify a shift toward authoritarianism. His portrayal of Ethiopia as a unified state, transcending ethnic boundaries, masked his real goal of political centralization. The use of the Orominga language and culture in the public sphere was presented as an effort to unite the country under a single national identity, but in reality, it was part of a broader strategy to reinforce the power of the Oromo and the OPP (Tadesse, 2021). Abiy’s political maneuvering under the banner of unity served to marginalize rival ethnic groups, especially the Amhara, Tigrayans, who had long held significant influence within the Ethiopian government.

Furthermore, Abiy’s political reforms coincided with an increase in ethnic-based violence, particularly Oromo with Amhara, Tigrayans, Gurage, Somali, Wolaita, and other groups further revealing the contradiction between his rhetoric of national unity and the reality of escalating ethnic tensions (Kebede, 2021). His centralization efforts and strategic use of ethnic identity ultimately exposed his hidden agenda to reframe Ethiopia’s political landscape to suit the interests of his ethnic group, further destabilizing the nation.

Slobodan Milošević: Ethnic Nationalism and Authoritarian Consolidation

Slobodan Milošević’s rise to power in the late 1980s and 1990s was marked by his use of ethnic Serbian nationalism as a means to consolidate power and expand Serbia’s territorial boundaries. Milošević presented himself as the protector of ethnic Serbs, especially in Kosovo, which became a focal point of his nationalist rhetoric (Glenny, 2000). However, his use of ethnic identity was not simply about defending the Serbian people but was a tool to pursue a Greater Serbia—a vision of territorial expansion that included Serbian-majority areas of Croatia and Bosnia. Milošević’s hidden agenda involved using ethnic identity to justify violent territorial expansion and the establishment of an authoritarian regime (Burg & Shoup, 1999).

Milošević’s manipulation of ethnic identity fueled the breakup of Yugoslavia and led to widespread violence in Bosnia and Croatia, where ethnic cleansing campaigns were justified in the name of protecting Serbs from perceived threats (Ramet, 2005). His political maneuvering was designed to centralize power in Serbia, with the ultimate goal of creating a Serbian-dominated state. The rhetoric of defending ethnic Serbs against external and internal enemies masked his true political intentions—expanding Serbian territory and consolidating power at the expense of other ethnic groups within Yugoslavia. Milošević’s hidden agenda was to use the divisive power of ethnic identity to justify authoritarianism, territorial expansion, and political domination.

Comparative Analysis of Hidden Agendas

Both Abiy Ahmed and Slobodan Milošević used ethnic identity to justify centralization and authoritarian rule, though their methods and political contexts differed. Milošević’s ethnic nationalism was overt and directly tied to territorial expansion. His hidden agenda of creating a Greater Serbia was masked by a rhetoric of protecting ethnic Serbs, and his policies led to violent conflict and the eventual collapse of Yugoslavia (Glenny, 2000).

Abiy Ahmed’s hidden agenda, while presented as a reformist effort to transcend ethnic federalism, was similarly focused on consolidating political control. Abiy used the idea of a unified Ethiopian identity to centralize power under his leadership, while also strengthening the Oromo Prosperity Party and empowering his own ethnic group (Kebbede, 2020). His rhetoric of unity masked his deeper political calculations, leading to increased ethnic tensions, particularly with the Amhara, Tigrayans, whose power was diminished under his centralization efforts (Kebede, 2021). The hidden agenda in both cases was not just the defense or transcendence of ethnic identity, but the strategic use of ethnic politics to strengthen the leader’s power and suppress political opposition.

Both leaders manipulated ethnic identity to justify actions that suited their political ambitions—Milošević through territorial conquest and Abiy through political centralization. In both cases, the leaders’ efforts to frame their actions in terms of unity or ethnic defense obscured the true motivations behind their decisions, leading to internal instability and violent conflict.

Abiy Ahmed’s Hidden Agenda Behind the Oromo Identity Narrative

Abiy Ahmed’s strategic use of ethnic identity in his public discourse, particularly the emphasis on the Oromo language and culture, was designed to project an image of inclusivity and empowerment for the Oromo people, while simultaneously securing his own political agenda. By highlighting the significance of Oromo identity in Ethiopia’s national discourse, Abiy framed his leadership as a turning point for the historically marginalized Oromo ethnic group. He often used phrases such as “Now is our time,” signaling to the Oromo population that they were at the forefront of political change (Kebbede, 2021). In doing so, he sought to create a strong sense of ownership and pride among the Oromo people, positioning himself as their champion in the Ethiopian political landscape.

Abiy’s speeches frequently invoked Oromo culture and language to connect with the Oromo people, presenting his administration as a government that was finally reflecting their interests and responding to their historical grievances. His narrative suggested that under his leadership, the government had become a victory for Oromo’s political agency, casting his political reforms—particularly the dismantling of Ethiopia’s system of ethnic federalism—as necessary steps toward national unity (Tadesse, 2021). The concept of unity, as articulated by Abiy, centered on the idea of transcending the ethnic divisions that had long structured Ethiopian politics. He presented this new pan-Ethiopian identity as an opportunity to heal past wounds and create a more harmonious national community (Kebbede, 2020).

However, the reality of Abiy’s political maneuvering reveals a deeper, more complex agenda. Critics argue that while Abiy presented his reforms as a means to move beyond ethnic divisions, his actions were in fact designed to consolidate power within his own political faction, the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP), and to secure the dominance of the Oromo ethnic elite (Kebbede, 2021). Abiy’s centralization of power, embodied in the dismantling of the ethnic federalism system, aimed at reducing the influence of other ethnic groups, especially the Tigrayans and Amharas, who had previously held significant power in Ethiopia’s federal structure. Far from benefiting all Oromos, these moves empowered Abiy’s political faction, providing it with greater control over the state apparatus while weakening the political influence of rival groups (Tadesse, 2021).

This hidden agenda was particularly evident in Abiy’s strategic use of Oromo language and culture, which, while publicly appearing as a tool for ethnic empowerment, was actually a calculated move to consolidate his own political base. By promoting the Oromo language in the public sphere and framing the government’s narrative as one that prioritized Oromo identity, Abiy succeeded in rallying support from the Oromo population, creating a strong connection between his leadership and the ethnic group’s aspirations. However, this rhetoric of unity was in many ways a mask for his true intentions of centralizing political control and reinforcing the authority of the Oromo political elite, particularly those within the OPP.

As Abiy’s political reforms progressed, ethnic tensions in Ethiopia began to escalate, revealing the contradictions between his public calls for unity and the underlying political calculations that fueled his centralization efforts. The violence that erupted, particularly between the Oromo and other ethnic groups such as the Amhara and Tigrayans, exposed the challenges of attempting to reconcile ethnic diversity with the centralization of power. Abiy’s efforts to create a unified national identity ultimately served to marginalize those ethnic groups that had historically held power and influence, exacerbating ethnic tensions and contributing to the instability in Ethiopia (Kebbede, 2021).

In sum, Abiy Ahmed’s public discourse, while framed as an inclusive effort to build a unified Ethiopian identity, concealed his hidden agenda to centralize political control within the Oromo political elite. His strategic use of ethnic identity, particularly the promotion of Oromo culture and language, allowed him to rally support from the Oromo people, but ultimately served as a means to consolidate his authority and marginalize rival ethnic groups. The contradictions between his public rhetoric of unity and the reality of ethnic conflict underscore the risks of using ethnic identity as a political tool for consolidation of power, highlighting the complexities of ethnic politics in contemporary Ethiopia.

The Hidden Costs of Ethnic Empowerment

Abiy Ahmed’s strategic use of the Oromo language and culture was a powerful tool in rallying support for his leadership, positioning the government as finally representing the interests of the Oromo people. By centering the Oromo identity in his rhetoric, he projected an image of ethnic empowerment that suggested a long-overdue political victory for the historically marginalized group. Publicly, this narrative presented Abiy’s administration as one that understood and prioritized the grievances of the Oromo people, signaling a new era of political agency for them. However, this portrayal of unity and empowerment concealed a more calculated effort to consolidate power within his own political faction, the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP), and further centralize control over Ethiopia’s political and state structures.

While Abiy’s rhetoric of unity and ethnic pride appeared to advocate for the well-being of all Ethiopians, it simultaneously enabled the consolidation of his political power and the marginalization of rival ethnic groups. His centralization of state power, which involved dismantling the federal system that recognized ethnic-based regions, was seen as an attempt to diminish the political influence of groups such as the Tigrayans, Amhara, and others, thus securing dominance for the Oromo elite. Through his policies, Abiy sought to weaken the influence of these groups, particularly those who had previously held power under Ethiopia’s system of ethnic federalism (Kebbede, 2021).

However, the reality on the ground for many Oromo people has been far from the empowerment promised in Abiy’s speeches. The same ethnic identity that he used to rally political support has also been a tool for suppressing dissent and reinforcing the control of his party over the state apparatus. Moreover, despite the rhetoric of lifting up the Oromo, the Ethiopian people as a whole, including the Oromos themselves, have faced severe hardships, particularly as Ethiopia descends further into internal conflict and ethnic violence under Abiy’s regime. The Oromo, along with Amhara, Tigrayans, Gurage, Sidama, and other groups, have been subjected to atrocities and violence, often at the hands of government forces or groups aligned with Abiy’s administration (Tadesse, 2021).

For many in Ethiopia, Abiy’s reforms and promises of unity have been overshadowed by ongoing human rights violations, including forced displacement, ethnic-based violence, and brutal crackdowns on dissent. The suffering of the Oromo people, as well as other ethnic groups, reflects a harsh irony: Abiy, who framed himself as a liberator of the Oromo, has presided over a period of increasing ethnic tensions and violence that has affected all communities in the country, regardless of ethnic affiliation. As such, the reality of Abiy’s government contradicts his public narrative of peace and unity, raising important questions about the true nature of his political agenda and its consequences for Ethiopian society as a whole.

Ultimately, Abiy’s public narrative of unity and empowerment for the Oromo hides a complex and deeply problematic reality. His focus on consolidating power under the OPP has led to instability, suffering, and violence across Ethiopia, making it clear that his use of ethnic identity for political gain has come at a high human cost.

Conclusion

The cases of Slobodan Milošević and Abiy Ahmed demonstrate how ethnic identity can be strategically used by leaders to achieve hidden political agendas, including authoritarian consolidation and territorial expansion. While Milošević’s use of ethnic nationalism led to the violent fragmentation of Yugoslavia, Abiy Ahmed’s centralization efforts have resulted in ethnic conflict and instability within Ethiopia. Both leaders utilized ethnic identity to justify their actions, but the hidden agendas behind their rhetoric reveal the dangers of ethnic politics when used for personal or political gain. This comparative analysis underscores the complexities of ethnic identity in contemporary politics and highlights the potential for such identity-based strategies to undermine national unity and stability.

Abiy Ahmed’s strategic use of Oromo identity, particularly through language and culture, was designed to rally support and project an image of empowerment for the Oromo people. His public discourse emphasized national unity and healing past ethnic divisions. However, beneath this rhetoric lay a calculated effort to centralize power within his Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP), weakening the influence of rival ethnic groups like the Tigrayans and Amharas. Despite promises of empowerment, Abiy’s government has been marked by increasing ethnic violence and human rights violations, affecting all Ethiopian communities. The hidden agenda behind Abiy’s ethnic identity rhetoric has led to instability, suffering, and further ethnic tensions in Ethiopia, underscoring the risks of using ethnic identity for political gain. 

Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com

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