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The Continuing Violence and Armed Conflict in the Horn of Africa: Root Causes and Impacts

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Ethiopia _ Horn of Africa _ Security challenges
Google map of the Horn of Africa

By Abdirezak Sahane Elmi

Introduction.

The region is currently grappling with a myriad of security challenges, including armed conflicts or insurgencies in countries like Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia, as well as political violence in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Additionally, issues such as terrorism, violent extremism, human and drug trafficking, and various international crimes like piracy, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and civil war are prevalent. These issues have a profound impact on the large community residing in the region.

Millions of people in the greater Horn of Africa are currently facing severe food insecurity due to one of the most severe droughts in recent decades and Political Conflicts . This situation has been exacerbated by years of conflict, instability, the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, and escalating food prices, partly due to the conflict in Ukraine.

As families struggle to access food, water, and grazing land for their livestock, many have been compelled to flee their homes. This widespread displacement often results in deteriorating hygiene and sanitation conditions, raising concerns about potential outbreaks of infectious diseases, especially when coupled with low vaccination rates and limited healthcare services.

The worsening food insecurity is compelling individuals to make tough choices between securing food or seeking medical assistance, leaving them more susceptible to diseases due to nutritional deficiencies. Children, in particular, face heightened risks as malnutrition and illness can prove fatal for them.

The combination of malnutrition and displacement underscores the urgent need for improved access to healthcare services, food, and clean water to aid a population that is progressively growing weaker and more susceptible to illnesses. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) and other humanitarian organizations have raised the alarm about the escalating issues facing the community in the Horn of Africa.

Essence:

Let’s highlight the ongoing conflict in the Horn of Africa where hundreds of thousands of young Africans have lost their lives due to armed violence in countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and, in rare cases, Kenya over the past five years. This ongoing violence is increasingly impacting our potential for development and the overall stability of the Horn region. The primary motivations behind these conflicts are political, stemming from an immature political culture that prioritizes implementing political ideology through armed power rather than democratic processes and dialogue based on ideas and perspectives.

This dangerous trajectory continues to pose a threat, potentially leading the region towards darkness and destruction. It is imperative that our politicians and political leaders act with wisdom and devise solutions that promote peaceful dialogue and democratic governance. Any political actors seeking power through armed means should understand that ruling society without the consent of its people is untenable in the 21st century, given the globalized nature of the world.

Somalia:

Somalia has been embroiled in a civil war for over three decades, leading to prolonged armed conflicts, political instability, and economic crisis that have left the population suffering. While a federal government was established decades ago, it has struggled to extend its reach nationwide, with much of the country’s territory under the control of Al-Shabaab rebels. Political conflicts persist between the federal government and regional states, exacerbating the situation. The ongoing armed conflicts have resulted in significant loss of young lives, while ordinary citizens bear the brunt of inflation and recurrent droughts.

The escalating conflict between federal government officials and the Puntland State Government and its people is a very concerning issue. In the realm of Somalia politics, the stance of the Puntland State is significant, and underestimating it , can lead to considerable political damage. It is important to remember that Puntland was the first regional government founded in Somalia and is considered by many as the mother of the Somali federal system. Therefore, I urge President Hassan Sheikh and his leadership not to alienate the people of Puntland, as their role is crucial in nation-building more than any other state.

The political and diplomatic tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia regarding the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by Ethiopia and Somaliland should be approached with reason and diplomacy. It is crucial for both parties to prioritize good neighborly relations, shared interests, and the exchange of opportunities that can strengthen their economic, social, and political bonds.

It is worth emphasizing that neither country can thrive in isolation while the other struggles in poverty. Consequently, Ethiopia’s progress has a significant impact on Somalia’s development. As sister nations, I urge both sides to engage in constructive dialogue and foster mutual understanding in a spirit of goodwill. It is essential to ensure that the voices of the Somaliland people and government are heard without any form of discrimination.

Sudan:

The country has descended into civil war following the ruthless generals seizing power. On October 25, 2021, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan led a military coup in Sudan, resulting in the detention of government officials and the dissolution of the Sovereignty Council. 

In response to widespread protests organized by opposition movements against the government, the National Army Generals seized the opportunity to overthrow the regime of Umar Hassan Al-Bashir.

Initially posing as agents of change, they eventually followed in the footsteps of their political mentor, resorting to dictatorship. The two powerful generals, National Army Chief Gen. Abdifatah al-Burhan and Special Forces Commander Gen. Hamdan Dagalo, turned against each other. Each has their own allies, fueling the conflict and intensifying the war without resolution.

Presently, Sudan lies in ruins with hundreds of thousands of civilians displaced, infrastructure destroyed, and civilians enduring dire circumstances. The merciless generals persist in their fight, resulting in the tragic deaths of young individuals in daily confrontations.

Kenya : 

The recent act of violence targeting the Parliament, based on ethnic tensions, has raised concerns among many, including myself. Despite Kenya’s progress in leadership and economic growth compared to neighboring countries, my investigation into the root causes of such violence revealed disturbing findings. It appears that the current Vice President is allegedly instigating political unrest to consolidate power beyond his designated role. Reports suggest he attempted to influence the appointment of the national intelligence head from his own ethnic group, a move rejected by President Ruto who opted for a candidate from the Somali community. This decision seemingly angered the Vice President, leading him to incite political turmoil under the guise of protesting tax hikes, shielding his true intentions from the public eye.

In a recent interview, MP Farah Ma’alin Daware, an experienced politician representing Dadab in Kenya and former Deputy Speaker of the Kenyan Parliament, shed light on the ongoing violence. Farah highlighted that the public reasons for the unrest do not tell the whole story, directly implicating the Vice President as the mastermind behind the chaos. According to Farah, the Vice President’s actions stem from a misguided belief that only his clan truly belongs in Kenya, a notion that Farah vehemently dismissed. He emphasized that Somalis are proud citizens of Kenya, asserting their readiness to defend their rights and rejecting any form of discrimination. Farah underscored the importance of inclusivity in Kenya, stating that Somalis play a crucial role in the nation and wholeheartedly expressed support for President Ruto as the rightful leader to guide the country.

To address these issues of ethnic marginalization, the State of Kenya and its people must consider constitutional amendments transitioning from a semi-federal system to an ethnic federalism model, drawing inspiration from the Ethiopian governance structure. Kenya, like Ethiopia, is a nation comprising multiple ethnic groups sharing one state, making ethnic federalism crucial to resolve the problems stemming from the current centralized system.

This recommendation is made with the understanding that ethnic groups in Kenya do not equally benefit from the existing government framework, where presidential powers are dominant and nepotism is prevalent. By adopting an ethnic federal system, Kenya can potentially surpass Ethiopia given its advancements in state-building, democratic practices, and effective judicial institutions. Implementing an ethnic federal system would curtail centralized power dynamics and enhance democratic governance.

Ethiopia:

In this particular concern ; as an Ethiopian, I am deeply concerned and earnestly advocate for the resolution of the situation in our country, particularly the ongoing conflicts in the Amhara region, parts of the Oromia region, and the Somali and Afar border through peaceful dialogue and discussions based on brotherhood.

I am aware that the Federal Government is making efforts to resolve the ongoing conflicts through peaceful means, as they have done previously in the Tigray region. The government has expressed its desire for peaceful dialogue with armed groups on multiple occasions. Despite the repeated attempts at peace talks between the government and the OLA, the efforts of the government persist as they are dedicated to reaching an agreement for long-lasting peace for the people and the country. However, I am uncertain about the commitment from the other side.

The conflict in the Amhara region has been ongoing for nearly a year now, resulting in the loss of several young lives daily. Public infrastructure has been destroyed, the economy of society has suffered, and innocent civilians and government officials are dying without reason. All of this is detrimental to the country and its people.

It is crucial to understand that in today’s political climate, no one can fully control power in armed conflicts. Even if the government were to fall, it would lead to another war with new opponents emerging from the community, ultimately causing further destruction in the country. Therefore, seeking to easily control power is a mistake, as the complexities of armed conflicts in Ethiopia are often underestimated.

However, the reality is that the current government in Ethiopia is well-equipped to resist any internal or external forces, thanks to its strong military and security forces. They are committed to ensuring the unity and integrity of the nation. Therefore, the prolonged conflicts only harm society and the lives of the youth without yielding any positive outcomes.

Another concerning issue is the conflict along the Somali and Afar region border, which is causing significant harm to the people in both regions. We recall the Somali civilians who were displaced from their land, and this unfortunate situation continues with daily reports of painful losses, including civilians being killed on main roads.

I believe that the Afar and Somali communities are brothers and sisters, both being Muslim communities who share a border. They have lived together in the past and will continue to do so in the future because one cannot choose their neighbors. The only viable solution is to address the issues at hand and create a path for the return of civilian internally displaced persons to their homes. This requires both parties to acknowledge the truth and actively seek solutions.

In my opinion, it is imperative for all Ethiopians to work together towards a peaceful and politically stable country in collaboration with our government and community elders. To achieve this, we must be prepared to participate in the national dialogue facilitated by the National Dialogue Commission. Any alternative approach would be misguided and likely lead to negative outcomes in the end.

Conclusion:

Therefore, I urge everyone to refrain from being guided by short-sighted emotions and instead employ thoughtful and informed reasoning to transform the tragic history of violence and power struggles. We must establish a democratic political culture that prioritizes the well-being of our impoverished and innocent society, which has long suffered due to misguided leadership and outdated ideologies.

Let us strive to be more humane and avoid senseless killing of our fellow brothers and sisters. Let us work on improving our attitudes and attain political maturity. Let us learn from history, resolve internal conflicts, and think wisely like developed nations. Let us utilize our minds and distinguish ourselves from animals.

Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com


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