By Bamlaku Desalegn Birku
1. The Hidden Crisis of IDPs
According to the UNHCR 2023 report, internally displaced persons (IDPs) represent the largest segment of the world’s forcibly displaced population, a trend that has persisted over the past two decades, displacement increased by 51% over the past five years worldwide. The World Summit guiding principles define IDPs as individuals or groups forced to flee their homes due to armed conflict, widespread violence, human rights violations, or natural and human-made disasters, without crossing internationally recognized borders (World Summit, 2005).
This crisis is particularly acute in Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for nearly 40% of global displacements, with Ethiopia emerging as one of the most affected countries. In East Africa, with over 4.5 million people internally displaced due to ongoing ethnic conflicts, insecurity, targeted violence and climate change related risks (UNHCR Ethiopia, 2023) next to Sudan (UNHCR Sudan, 2025).
2. Crisis of Internal Displacement in Ethiopia: A Deepening trend
According to a study by Tsegay and Gezahegne, (2023); Ethiopia’s displacement crisis is deeply complex, requiring urgent and political responses that integrate conflict resolution, climate resilience, and sustainable resource management. Additionally, ethnic conflicts, resource-based disputes, and persistent insecurity continue to generate new displacement while preventing large-scale returns (Nigusie, 2023, IDMC, 2023). According to data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) tracking matrix in graph below, a staggering 23.94 million individuals have been displaced in Ethiopia. The figure below attested that Ethiopia has been grappling with an escalating displacement crisis over the past 9 years, with internal displacement reaching alarming levels. Conflict-driven displacement accounts for 19.72 million people, while 4.22 million have been forced to flee due to disaster-related risks such as droughts, floods, and environmental degradation.
So what tells these Internal Displacement Trends for the country?
Ethiopia’s internal displacement crisis has evolved through distinct phases, driven by political instability, ethnic conflicts, and environmental shocks and resources conflicts. Each period presents unique trends and challenges:
Pre-2016: Low and Stable Displacement
- IDPs ranged between 200,000 and 500,000 annually, primarily due to localized inter-ethnic clashes, droughts, and floods (IDMC, 2016).
- Large-scale forced migration was rare, with displacement mostly temporary and confined to specific regions and localities.
2016–2018: Ethnic Violence and Political Unrest
- Displacement surged beyond 2.8 million as, coinciding with widespread protests against the TPLF-led EPRDF government. anti-government protests escalated into widespread ethnic violence, particularly in Oromia, Amhara (ReliefWeb, 2018; U.S. Department of State, 2018).
- Ethnic-based violence and conflicts, fueled by political tensions, resulted in mass evictions and humanitarian crises, particularly in Oromia and the peripheral areas of Addis Ababa, resulted in a humanitarian crisis, with millions forced to flee their homes (U.S. Department of State, 2018; UNHCR, 2019). The situation was further exacerbated by environmental shocks, including floods and droughts (World Meteorological Organization, 2019).
2018–2020: Political Reforms and Temporary Stability
- From April 2018, Ethiopia underwent a remarkable political transformation following the appointment of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
- This period was marked by widespread optimism and a sense of national unity, leading to a temporary decline in displacement levels. Many hoped for long-term stability, democracy, and reconciliation.
- And yet, though the displacement crisis did not entirely subside, as sporadic ethnic violence and governance challenges persisted. Such as clashes on the outskirts of Addis Ababa in September, when Oromo youth flocked to the capital to welcome Oromo Liberation Front fighters returning from Eritrea, displaced 15,000 people (Amnesty International, 2018)
2020–2022: War and Ethnic Atrocities
- The Tigray conflict caused the mass displacement of millions across Tigray, Amhara, and Afar, making Ethiopia the country with the highest number of new internal displacements globally in a single year (Amnesty International, 2022; OCHA, 2021).
- Ethnic massacres and targeted killings in Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz intensified, disproportionately affecting the Amhara population (ReliefWeb, 2018).
- The role of both government forces and non-state actors deepened the crisis, making return and reintegration impossible.
2022–Present: Peace Agreements and Persistent Instability
- The 2022 Pretoria Agreement initially reduced displacement, facilitating some returns in Tigray, Amhara, and Afar.
- However, renewed conflicts-especially in Amhara due to the federal government’s disarmament campaign-led to fresh displacement.
- Ongoing violence between the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and federal forces in Oromia continues to uproot thousands.
- Although the number of new displacements has decreased, the trend in the graph shows that the total IDP population remains above 3.2 million. This indicates a very low rate of return and reintegration, resulting in prolonged displacement. Many remain trapped in overcrowded camps with limited access to basic services (UNHCR, 2023).
The Broader Implications for the Future of Ethiopia’s IDPs?
Protracted displacement remains a critical issue, with inadequate reintegration Ethiopia’s displacement crisis has from failing to passing since 2019 due to conflict, weak governance, and a lack of political will. Instead of pursuing sustainable reintegration, the government has politicized displacement, leaving over 2.9 million IDPs trapped in overcrowded camps with inadequate services. Beyond displacement, they endure severe hardships-malnutrition, trauma, health crises, addiction, and exploitation-while women and children face heightened risks of abuse, labor exploitation, and lost education.
3. Debre Birhan Displacement Crisis: Conflict, Persecution, and Climate Misfortune
a. The Human and Structural Crisis of Ethiopia’s IDPs
Based on Debre Birhan City Municipality, 2024 Reports, the city hosts approximately 24,250 IDPs across three municipality-recognized camps-China, Bakello, and Weynishet-alongside over 8 informal concentration camps and centers. However, this figure excludes an additional more than 8,000 individuals scattered in peripheral areas, substandard rentals, or resisting forced returns, as well as those relocating for work. Visits and interviews with displaced families in Debre Birhan’s three IDP camps reveal a microcosm of Ethiopia’s broader crisis: families trapped in limbo, children deprived of education, and women facing heightened risks of exploitation, malnutrition, and trauma. Many have lost their familes, homes, livelihoods, and any sense of security, with no clear future. Women and children-the majority of the displaced-suffer the most, enduring exploitation, hunger, and deep psychological distress. And yet, despite the Pretoria Peace Agreement ending the Tigray war in 2022 and the government’s reported agreements with militants in Oromia, the Amhara region has seen no peace-only a new wave of violence and persecution, marked by:
- Armed conflicts between Fano militants and government forces: that was once a militia supporting federal forces during the war is now locked in a violent struggle with the Ethiopian government forces. Clashes have displaced thousands, preventing the return and get actability of the humanitarian assistance of war-affected IDPs.
- Displacement as a Political Tool: Ethiopia has become a war zone marked by ethnic violence, with armed groups, militias, and government forces turning communities into battlegrounds. According to the U.S. Department of State (2023), these groups use ethnic cleansing, forced expulsions, and systematic persecution to alter demographics. In Debre Berhan IDP camps, victims of this silent ethnic war-farmers, teachers, and business owners-are uprooted from where they had stable lives, now stateless in their own country. In areas like Wollega, West Shewa, and Benishangul-Gumuz, ethnic minorities, in particular the Amhara ethnic group, are subjected to targeted killings and mass expulsions, forcing thousands to flee amidst brutal attacks on civilians, including women and children (Amnesty International, 2022; 2020).
A father at the china camp of Debre birhan IDPs remember this horrific actions as “entire villages have been burned, and families have fled to IDP camps with nothing but the clothes on their body”.
A study by Moges, inAtye, of Amhara region is also known for inter-ethnic tensions, conflicts frequently erupt along ethnic lines, with cycles of revenge killings, economic destruction and forced displacements (Moges Z., 2021).Hence, all these facts attested that displacement in Ethiopia is no longer just only a consequence of conflict, instead it has become a political strategy. So the question that can be answered for the country is that why the Ethiopian government has struggled to control these conflicts, either due to inaction, political interests, or sheer incapacity? And yet, while national leaders call for peace, the daily news and reporting attested that violence on the ground here and there in the country tells a different story-one where ethnic identity determines who lives, who dies, and who is forced to flee.
Post-war economic and social collapse: The Amhara region of Ethiopia has faced significant challenges in the aftermath of recent conflicts, particularly following the cessation of hostilities of the neighboring Tigray with the Federal Government of Ethiopia in end of 2022. The disarmament of regional forces and the arrest of Fano militia members by the federal government have escalated tensions, which has led to violent confrontations, undermining regional peace, stability and governance structures. Infrastructure and the basic services remains in ruins, jobs have vanished, and food insecurity is worsening, leading to loss of livelihoods and exacerbating poverty in which these devastations makes displacement for many.
- Drought and climate shocks: Particularly North Gondar and Wag Hamra, is experiencing severe drought, as of early 2024, approximately half a million individuals are now displaced and face even greater hardship (UNOCHA, 2024).
b. Ethnic Persecution and Targeted Violence: The Root Causes of Displacement
The camp report and survey data reveal that most IDPs in Debre Birhan, particularly Amharas from western Oromia’s and East Wollega, West Shewa, and Benishangul-Gumuz, have been systematically targeted through violence, killings, displacement, and land dispossession. Amnesty International (2020) reports that Amharas in these areas have suffered massacres, forced evictions, and land loss, often with local authorities complicating the situation.
In West Shewa, tensions rose post-war, with Amharas ethnic farmers targeted by militias, prompting mass displacement (Amnesty International, 2020). The Amhara Association of America (2020) highlights the historical and ongoing violence against Amharas in Benishangul-Gumuz.
The violence is part of a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign, not generalized conflict. Survey results from three IDP camps in Debre Birhan (fig.2c) show that over 98% of respondents cite ethnic violence and persecution as the main reasons for displacement, rather than climate-related disasters. Additionally, nearly 99% of the IDPs are from the Oromia regions of West Wollega, East Wollega, and West Shewa, as well as Benishangul-Gumuz (fig. 2a). The survey attested that displacement in Debre Birhan is driven by ethnic conflict and religious persecution, particularly affecting those fleeing violence in Oromia and Benishangul Gumuz. Predominantly Amhara, these individuals have endured massacres and targeted violence due to their ethnicity and faith. One displaced father from East Wollega shared, “We faced massacres, brutal killings, and violence just because of who we are, because of our faith and our identity, being Amhara.” Over 60% of IDPs have been in camps for over 2.5 years, with vulnerable groups like women, children, and the elderly facing heightened health risks. The 2024 Debre Birhan City Municipality report highlights 70 unaccompanied children, 337 individuals with disabilities, 542 with mental health conditions, and over 1,300 women, including 133 pregnant and 1,177 breastfeeding mothers, all facing severe health and nutritional challenges. Additionally, 440 individuals with chronic illnesses lack essential medical care. A report by Doctors with Africa CUAMM highlighted the critical health needs of IDPs in Debre Birhan in sanitation issues, including damaged toilets, non-functional showers, and poor waste management, are exacerbating public health risks, particularly for women and children (Doctors with Africa CUAMM, 2023).
Food scarcity is a critical issue, with reports highlighting a sharp decline in humanitarian aid. Displaced families are receiving just 15 kg of flour per household, inadequate for their needs. Aid cuts, due to security concerns and restricted access, have left many without essential support. The camp manager at China camp expressed distress over the impact on children and vulnerable groups, noting, “It’s painful to see children starving. Food is scarce, and aid workers no longer visit due to fear of violence and insecurity from the conflict between government forces and Fano militants.” This reduction in aid has worsened the dire situation for thousands of displaced individuals.
4. The Climate Burden: From Conflict to the Hidden Enemy of IDP Suffering
In the IDP camps of Debre Birhan, the stark intersection of conflict, trauma, and climate change weaves a dark reality for thousands of displaced people. During visits to the camps, stories of pain and loss were ever-present, the scene is heart-wrenching, with endless rows of plastic shelters battered by fierce winds and frigid temperatures, offering little protection to those who have already lost everything, including loved ones. Nights in Debre Birhan are especially unforgiving. Temperatures plummet, and the relentless winds tear through the flimsy shelters like sharp blades, making it nearly impossible to stay warm. The places in city like where China and Weynishet Camps located are called as “Tebasie“-a place where winds are so intense that they cause skin abrasions and discomfort. A mother of twins at Wenishet Camp, pulling a tattered shawl tighter around her shivering children, says, “The cold here is unbearable. We have nothing to keep us warm-no proper blankets, no fuel for heating. Even charcoal or firewood is a luxury we cannot afford. We left with nothing.”
A father, once a proud farmer from East Wollega, fled in 2022, leaving behind his livelihood and the tragic loss of his eldest son to ethnic violence. Now, in the barren and hostile environment of China Camp, he faces new struggles-hunger, despair, and the relentless cold. The severe winds and rain that once nurtured his crops now torment him. “The rains I once welcomed with love for my farming have become a source of suffering and fear,” he says, his voice heavy with grief. “The howling wind never stops, striking us day and night. It feels like even the earth has turned against us. Back in East Wollega, we had sturdy homes and shelter, and resources to cope with the weather,” he recalls with longing. “Now, everything is upside down.” Despite government calls for return, he and many others are wary. “How can we go back when militants are still killing us?” he asks. “They say we should return, but how can we when the danger is still there? The militants who killed my son are still out there. No one speaks for us. No one hears us.” His words are filled with despair: “Our lives are an untold history. They hunted us like animals. They took our cattle for slaughter, but worse, they took our daughters, our wives. Sometimes, I wish I had died with my family. At least they don’t have to see this… this suffering.” His pain echoes the fears of many in the camp-trapped between the promise of return and the reality of ongoing violence.
In China Camp, a mother, after enduring over two years of hardship, shares her sorrow: “Life in this camp feels like a curse. Every day passes without hope, without a future for our children. There is no school, no chance to dream. Only suffering.” Despite the government’s assurances, she is unwilling to return. “How can we go back when militants are still killing those of us who are Amhara? We’ve heard horrifying stories of those who tried to return. It’s not safe.” The cold seeps through their shelter, leaving her children sick and shivering. “When we fled, we thought we left suffering behind. But in this camp, we are dying slowly, unseen.”
In Bakello Camp, a mother recounts the devastating loss of both her husband and son to the violence. “How can we go back to such uncertainty?” she asks, torn between the decision to stay or return. “We are starving, homeless, and broken,” she laments. Her youngest, a five-year-old, recently battled pneumonia due to the cold. “She was burning with fever, struggling to breathe,” the mother recalls with a trembling voice. “But there’s no hospital, no help. She was left to fight on her own, just like we are.”
In Weynishet Camp, another mother describes the crushing toll of hunger and cold: “We get only 15 kg of flour per month for my family of four. It’s supposed to last a month, but even stretching it for 45 days is impossible. And for the last four months, we haven’t received it regularly.” She worries about her children’s future: “We worked so hard for their education. Now, they have no school, no future. They just sit here, trapped in suffering.”
Many IDPs have been transformed from self-reliant individuals to people wholly dependent on handouts. Those who refuse to return are removed from the aid lists and left to fend for themselves. One man, now begging on the streets of Debre Birhan, speaks of the profound shame he feels: “Our names have been removed from aid lists. It’s as if we no longer exist.” Once a farmer and a father of three, he now begs strangers for food. “I used to provide for my family. Now, I feel like I’ve failed them. We are starving, homeless, and broken. We are buried alive.”
Across all three camps and the streets of Debre birhan, IDPs face a grim choice: endure the unbearable conditions of the camps or return to the dangers that forced them to flee in the first place. Harsh winds, flooding, and bitter cold make survival even more precarious. A study by Belay et al., (2023) reveals the heavy psychological toll, with a high prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) among IDPs. Many suffer from severe psychological trauma, compounded by the physical suffering they endure. The host community, already stretched thin, faces rising tensions, further threatening social cohesion. With overcrowded shelters, poor sanitation, and inadequate infrastructure, survival has become a daily struggle. These compounded challenges underscore the urgent need for climate-resilient interventions and long-term, sustainable solutions to break the cycle of suffering.
5. So Why IDPs Refuse to Return: A cycle of displacement without resolution
Many IDPs in Debre Birhan do not wish to return home due to security concerns, highlighting the government’s failure to restore peace and stability in affected regions (fig.2b), is mainly:
- Lingering Ethnic Violence and Attacks: Ethnic-based violence, arbitrary arrests, killings, torture, and sexual violence are ongoing, with no security guarantees in place. Armed groups continue to operate with impunity, making return impossible without a comprehensive peace framework (Danish Immigration Service, 2024, All Africa.com, February, 2022).
- Lack of Trust in Government Protection: Many IDPs distrust the government due to years of violence, neglect, and land confiscation. Concerns about the safety of returnees persist, as only 1,530 out of 4,100 IDPs had been relocated by February 2024, with militants still active. Over 714 households in Bakelo camp have had aid stopped and been removed from the displaced persons list (Addis Standard, October 29, 2024). The question remains: Are returns by themselves safe and voluntary? The government has been criticized, however, for encouraging premature returns to regions not yet safe and for not doing enough to protect civilians in line with the Guiding Principles and the Kampala Convention (African Union, 2009), a regional treaty on IDPs’ protection and assistance where Ethiopia is signed.
- Amhara Region’s Instability Post-War: The Amhara region continues to suffer from instability after years of violence, including the 2019 assassination of key officials and the TPLF war. The region remains fractured, and armed factions and militias exacerbate the vulnerability of displaced people, leaving them stranded without a reintegration plan.
- Failure to Secure Federal Intervention: The Amhara regional government should have called for federal security intervention to address ethnic violence and displacement, but instead, there has been silence and inaction, worsening the crisis and leaving IDPs with no hope for a secure future.
6. Conclusion and outlooks
Debre Birhan is merely the visible fragment of Ethiopia’s deeper crisis-where displacement, ethnic marginalization, and unchecked suffering define the daily reality for countless people. The government speaks of peace, stability, and prosperity, yet the country’s headlines tell a different story: massacres continue, forced displacements escalate, and the most vulnerable are left to struggle in makeshift camps with little hope of relief. If peace is truly being pursued, why do killings persist till today? If national unity is a priority, why are ethnic divisions deepening? If IDPs in Debre Birhan were placed there because they are Amhara, does this reflect a deliberate political calculus that normalizes their suffering rather than alleviating it? While those displaced from Oromia find refuge in Addis Ababa (ENDRIS et al., 2022), the IDPs in Debre Birhan endure extreme hardships. Will the cycle of displacement, suffering, and ethnic fragmentation ever end? Or will the government’s words remain for the political while its people continue to endure unimaginable hardship or crisis spirals beyond repair?