Continued war crisis in Ethiopia

By: Gebeyehu Wondim 

Ethiopia, a populous country in Africa was known for its booming economic development, infrastructure and maintaining peace within and the horn of Africa before 2018. According to the IMF report published on 26 October 2017, the Ethiopian economy was the third-fastest growing economy consistently from 2000 to 2016 [1], with an estimated poverty rate dropping by 31% in 2011. Since Abiy Ahmed came to power as prime minister, the country has been placed in continued war and conflict crisis leading to unprecedented destruction to the people and country’s resources.

War crisis in Tigray 

The war sparked between the Federal Government and the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) on 04 December 2020 resulted in a tragic humanitarian and economic crisis and finally ended 02 December 2022 after signing hostility agreement in Pretoria [2]. 

This two year war has devastated all public and private resources in the region including health infrastructure, schools, public institutions, industries and factories. Estimates of the number of people killed during the war vary significantly, but the most cited figure is 600,000 [3]. Extensive human rights abuses and violation of international human rights have been executed as weapons in the war by the government of Ethiopia.

In addition several people were displaced internally and to neighbouring countries. Economic and development activities in the region were completely seized during the war and slow paced after the war. After signing hostility agreement in Pretoria, the people of Tigray remained without development hopes of restoration, leading to migration of productive youths and increased criminal crisis in the region. No accountability has been placed to the vast destruction and myriad of the international human right violations to date [4]. 

War crisis in Amhara region 

Immediately after signing a hostility agreement with the TPLF in Pretoria, the Federal Government started another war in the neighbouring Amhara region, north Ethiopia. This ongoing war is between the forces of the Federal Government and the Amhara Fano [5]. In the beginning, the Federal Government declared a six month state of emergency [6] and deployed all its security forces (Ethiopian National Defence Force and police), regional security forces and secretive security called ‘Koree Negeenyaa’ to the Amhara region. 

The Federal Government started its operation to dismantle regional special Forces primarily targeting the disarming of Amhara Fano. However, the six month state of emergency ended without a significant achievement of the federal government’s goal and led to an extension of the state of emergency for an additional four months on 02 February 2024 [7]. 

It is now more than 22 months since this war started, and such a long stay in the war with the loss of human lives, destruction of public and private properties and resources have continued. During all these 22 months, a large number of people were killed with almost more that 90% of the victims’ are innocent civilians having no connection to the war. A report by Amhara Association in America (AAA) [8], indicated that just between August 2023 and 2024 an estimated 3,283 civilians were victimized in the war including 2,592 killed (individually and in mass) and 691 injured by the Ethiopian National Defence Forces. 

The international community should be aware of the fact that the regime is now committing genocide in the Amhara region as it has been executed in the Tigray region before two years. The forces of the government are indiscriminately killing innocent people from a 4 year old baby to 86-year old elders and monks in the church, children and women, bombing entire family members in house, health workers and medical doctors. A recent report by the forum for higher education in the Amhara region estimated that over 15,000 civilians have been killed, disabled, raped, or subjected to psychological disorder due to traumatization [9]. 

Beside, a recent report by Amnesty International (AI) showed mass arbitrary detention of thousands of people from different parts of Amhara region following a state-led campaign [10]. These people are members of the judiciary including judges, academicians and prosecutors, who are among the targets. Moreover, this report also emphasised that the absence of urgent action from the international community, such as development partners, international and African human rights, is beyond shameful. Thousands of people in the Amhara region were kept locked in detention without any charge and justice is a human right violation. 

Poor farmers that rely on natural resources such as natural rainfall and limited fertilizer inputs to produce their subsistence food crops in Amhara region were denied their access to fertilizer by the regime from 2023 [11]. Farmers went through frequent demonstrations in the regional capital (Bahir Dar) and office of agriculture for several days, to have their voice heard but, that was just considered as an elephant in the room by the regime and by the regional administration. 

Frequent demonstrations and the lack of response from the government created a yawning gap between the rural community and the government administration (both regional and federal). This added upon already existing and unresolved political tension of the Amhara region, leading to full-fledged war. So far, this war has destroyed most of the economy, social and developmental infrastructure in the region, turning living conditions and livelihoods from bad to worse. 

Farmers struggled to get a limited subsistence production from their farm without basic agricultural inputs in the 2024/25 production seasons. In several places of the region, harvested crops and those crops in the field ready to be harvested were intentionally destroyed, burned by artillery, air or drones. In addition to the people and crops, farm animals are also targeted and killed [12]. 

This will not only affect the current food security and livelihood conditions of the farmers leading to a famine, but also restrict farmers’ ability from having financial assets, and seeds for the next farming season. The poor and helpless community in Amhara region are therefore, exposed to multiple existential threats due to the ongoing war and related destructions most of which are intentional.

Insurgence in Oromia

This war is between Federal Government Defence Forces and Oromo Liberation Army (OLF/OLA-Shene). Following the accession of power by Abiy Ahmed, several changes immediately happened in Ethiopia. For instance, he released political prisoners and journalists and appeared to support freedom of the press, visited citizens in trouble abroad including the Middle East countries, assured the creation of a democratic ballot for Ethiopians beyond answering political questions, which initiated the revolution for his power accession [13]. 

To provide a broader political freedom, he called upon all opposition parties including those in the neighbouring countries, to join him and work together for their country and resolve their political differences through dialogue. However, such initiatives did not last long, he soon started the incarceration of journalists and influential political figures including members of his parliament. Over 200 journalists have been arrested since 2019 in Ethiopia with rapid shutdown of private media leading to increased freedom index from 110^th in 2019 to 141^st in 2024 out of 180 countries [14]. 

Members and leaders of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLA/OLF) were in Eritrea when Abiy Ahmed came to power, they came to Ethiopia following the invitation for peaceful political dialogue. Combatants of the OLF went back for fighting against the regime in western Oromia region. They feel that their promised reintegration into the national political power hierarchy and security agency were denied upon their return from exile [13]. 

The strategies that the regime employed to weaken the “Qeerroo” youth movement in the region drove most of the youth group to join OLF/OLA and intensify fighting in the Oromia region. Every evildoings in Oromia region, in particular ethnic based attack such as the killing of hundreds of civilians and mass displacement of Amhara ethnic group from Western Oromia were strongly associated with OLA/OLF-Shene by the regime while at the same time deliberately exposing vulnerable and unprotected Amhara civilians by government security agencies [15]. 

Following mass killings, increased abduction, disappearance of individuals, internal displacement and destruction of public infrastructure in the Oromia region, the council of ministers of Ethiopia designated TPLF and OLA/OLF-Shene as terror groups [16]. The Human Right Watch (HRW) reported that seven hundred civilians mainly from the Amhara ethnic group were killed by an armed group while little attempt was made by the Ethiopian security forces to protect them in June 2022. On 20 June 2022 over 250 people of Amhara ethnic were killed in West Oromia in six small farming villages where no one took responsibility [17].

In addition to such brutal killings of innocent civilians, displaced citizens are also suffering from starvation due to lack of food, lack of basic medical services and proper accommodations in different camps in the country, in particular in Amhara region. The number of people of Amhara ethnic group displaced from Oromia region escaping brutal death and violence are now residing in the campus in Amhara region and are estimated at over 3.3 million [13]. 

In the Oromia region, abduction of people and the request of bribes in millions of ‘Birr’ to set them free remain an important income for the armed groups and gangs. The delay or lack of bribe payment will result in killing of the captives. The most important issue is that this has been conducted by government led lower level security such as militia who arrest people to extort money [18]

The report (Ethiopia Situation 05 February 2025) indicated that a peace agreement signed between the faction of Oromo Liberation Army (OLA/OLF-Shene) led by Segni Negassa, and the Oromia regional government has led to a 57% decline of the violence in the region [19]. Following the peace agreement hundreds of OLA combatants are now in rehabilitation camps in Oromia region to obtain training that will help them to reintegrate with the society [20].

Just a week after the peace agreement, OLA/OLF-Shane militants killed Sululta Police Chief and two other members of the Ethiopian National Defence Forces [21], when officials and prosperity party leaders went to welcome them. There is still violences in the Oromia region targeting the civilians with continued sufferings due to lawlessness and lack of culpabilities. 

In this way, a continued almost five year of civil war, violence, detention and displacement in the country has caused several social, economic, institutional and all-rounded multiple and complex impacts which can last over a century with current attempts to restore damages and little attention given to them by the international community. Here under I witnessed some of the damages that these war has caused in the country:

Academic sector collapse 

Trained manpower is key for the development of a country. Taking into account the need for capable, educated manpower, the Ethiopian government embarked on expansion of higher educational institutions throughout the country to 42 public universities until 2018 [22]. This expansion has increased access to higher level institutions for training of the different parts of the community, including civil servants and was crucial in economic and technological advancement of the country. 

At present, universities throughout the country are significantly weakened in terms of training provision, technologies development, and research activities. Side by side, the number of students joining these universities from high schools dropped to only 3.2% – 5.4% of the total students completing their high school education in the country [23]. 

Students were deliberately made to fail in the national university entrance exam by the ministry of education (MoE) in the mane of assuring educational quality. It has been demonstrated that there are many high schools with no single student qualifying for the national exam and this is just practically not possible. As a result, students completing their high school education directly join the national military force as the only option left to them. 

More than 85% of the primary and secondary schools in the country are already far below the standard in terms of educational infrastructures. Most of these schools in Amhara and Tigray regions are now serving as a camp (base) for military forces, destroyed by artillery, air strike or bombed by drones [24]. 

During the Tigray war, over 7,000 schools were damaged with over 1.42 million students unable to attend school [25]. Similarly, due to the ongoing war in the Amhara region, over 4.1 million children are out of school as reported by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) [26]. According to a report dated 02 November 2024, conflicts taking place in every region of Ethiopia led to the closing of over 5,568, schools of which the majority of them are from Amhara region [26; 27]. 

The impacts of school closing will not only affect students but also all those working in the school. For instance, following war and the closing of schools, teachers will not receive their monthly salary payment. Teachers become vulnerable to hunger and become desperate to support their family as they are already struggling due to a rising cost of living [28]. 

The financial problem combined with war trauma, distress and psychological impact affected their current and future life as a teacher in school. For instance, in August 2024, more that 56,000 teachers in Amhara region require psycho-social support [29], while a significant number of students also need school feeding (UNOCHA). The cost of living in Ethiopia is escalating in particular following the devaluation of its currency “Birr” leading to 120% depreciation, increasing poverty and cost-of-living crisis [30]. 

Damage to agricultural and Natural Resources sectors 

Agriculture is the backbone of the Ethiopian economy but constrained with multiple constraints. Rapidly increasing population, the need for more food production, fragile ecosystem, resources degradation and climate change are among the major challenges. Majority of the population in Ethiopia i.e. over 85% live in rural areas and dependent on subsistence mixed agriculture involving crop production and livestock husbandry. Agriculture contributes 33.9% of the gross domestic product (GDP), 83.9% of export revenue, and 80% of the employment opportunity in Ethiopia [31]. 

Large part of agriculture in Ethiopia is conventional where tillage is conducted with traditional hard plough ‘maresha’ pulled by a pair of oxen. During the war in Tigray, destruction of crops in the field, burning of harvested crops, looting from farm stores were common leading to loss of over 90% of the produce in 2020 [32]. 

A considerable number of farmers lost their farm animals, such as oxen as they were killed in the war or slaughtered by the soldiers or just lost. Farm tools were deliberately destroyed or burnt, putting an already low productive and food insecure farming community into crisis. Agricultural institutes contributing towards sustainable agricultural development of the region were largely destroyed. 

The progress in the agricultural sector after the signing of the Pretoria agreement is also very limited due the war aftermath. The damages in the sector were not fully restored, most productive manpower were killed during the war or migrated out due to lack of hopes and prospects. Internally displaced communities were not returned to their original places and are still in need of support for food, accommodation and other basic medications [33]. Dependency on emergency food aid dramatically increased from 31% to 83% during and after the war [34]. This is due to exhaustion of the food stocks following the siege and blockade restricting any food item entry from the neighbouring regions. 

In the Amhara region farmers’ access to fertilizer were denied by the government well before the war started. During intense land preparation in the 2023 cropping season, farmers were expressing their worries of receiving sufficient amounts of fertilizers timely during the cropping season [35]. 

The region is very resourceful in terms of agricultural potential with significant contribution to national food security and export revenue generation. However, the ongoing war has a huge impact on regional agriculture destroying crops in the field, killing of animals, crop burning and looting and creating distressing and horrendous environments for agricultural operation. War and climate induced disasters have already started famine and killing of people in the region due to starvation where women, children and vulnerable parts of the society are affected [36; 37]. 

The famine crisis in Buguna district of North Wollo in Amhara region which has failed to garner attention is the result of ongoing war with over 10,000 people requiring emergency food aid. The impacts of this war on the agricultural sector is expected to worsen as the war prolongs. A recent report also indicated that due to food shortage and hunger over 350 children died in the country with another 330,000 being exposed to famine in the country [38]. The northern Ethiopia (Tigray and Amhara) regions in war for almost four years are vulnerable and exposed to famine due to combined effects of the wars, drought and continued war restraining farmers’ production system. 

Northern Ethiopia, both part of Amhara and Tigray region, are well known for extensive land resources degradation due to a long history of human impacts. Equally important is the efforts made to reverse land degradation and enhance agriculture. Seasonally scheduled land resources management such as free labour community mobilization has been implemented resulting into a remarkable recovery of the natural resources enabling millions of people to grow food and ensure food security. As a recognition of this effort, the Tigray region won a gold award for the world best policies to combat desertification in 2017 [39]. These resources conservation efforts and a system developed for its implementation is now totally unavailable and conditions are reversed. 

Conclusions 

The impacts of country wide war as it is in Ethiopia now is unbearable given the extremely vulnerable socio-ecological, economic and institutional capacity of the country. In whatever measures, the ongoing war in Ethiopia is unacceptable and the government of Ethiopia and international community should have sought political solutions before it is too late. The people of Ethiopia need justice to be in place and compensation for restoration for all the damages caused in the war. There should be a clear accountability. Otherwise if the rate of destruction continues as it is happening now, the impacts and damages caused by the ongoing war will be irreversible.

Endnotes 

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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