By Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne
The Ankara meeting, a diplomatic convergence facilitated by Türkiye, has ushered in a pivotal era for Horn of Africa dynamics, promising to reshape the regional and continental geopolitical landscape. The Ankara Declaration not only signifies a cessation of longstanding tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia but also marks a strategic pivot towards collaborative prosperity, mediated by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This accord reflects mature diplomacy, transcending past isolations and fostering a structured dialogue that ensures mutual benefit.
A Triumphant Symphony of Diplomacy
In the historical corridors of Ankara, handshakes that once seemed elusive have now woven a fabric of peace that could define the future of the Horn. Ethiopia’s quest for maritime access under Somalia’s sovereignty heralds a new chapter of economic synergy and enhanced connectivity, promising a ripple effect of stability across the continent. As Ethiopia and Somalia bury the hatchet over maritime access and territorial integrity, the region inches closer to a future where economic collaborations overshadow past resentments.
The Continental Echoes of Ankara
The Ankara Declaration’s implications transcend the immediate political rectifications; they introduce a blueprint for regional integration. By restoring diplomatic ties and redirecting ambitions towards cooperative engagements, Ethiopia and Somalia are setting a precedent for African nations. The strategic patience and diplomatic acumen of leaders like Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed – who has skillfully navigated Ethiopia through this diplomatic breakthrough – demonstrate a commitment to a vision that values peace over discord, cooperation over isolation.
Reconfiguring Ethiopia’s Maritime Aspirations
Ethiopia’s recalibrated approach to securing sea access, under the watchful eyes of Ankara’s mediation, could serve as a cornerstone for future economic policies. This strategic pivot not only alleviates potential regional tensions but also integrates Ethiopia more profoundly into the maritime economies of the Red Sea and beyond. The acknowledgment of mutual sovereignties and the pursuit of shared prosperity could redefine the economic contours of the Horn.
Behind the Curtains of the Ankara Accord
After a meticulous review of the Ankara agreement’s nuances, revelations from key insiders have provided a deeper insight into the intricate dynamics at play. Notably, the arrangement previously inked between Ethiopia and Somaliland has seen a recalibration. Ethiopia has ostensibly relinquished its earlier direct claim in exchange for a more nuanced, lease-based approach to using maritime gateways, underlining a shift towards respecting Somali sovereignty and regional harmony. This realignment reflects a broader strategy to stabilize relations by ensuring Somalia’s oversight over its territorial waters while potentially integrating Ethiopia into the maritime economic sphere under international laws like UNCLOS.
Reevaluating Ambitions and Strategic Recalibrations
This reorientation from ownership to usage signifies a transformative approach in Ethiopia’s regional policy. The change indicates a pivot from assertive territorial claims to a more diplomatic, lease-oriented strategy that aligns with international norms and regional expectations.
Furthermore, the clarification that Somalia, and possibly other neighboring nations like Djibouti, are open to facilitating Ethiopia’s maritime access under specific agreements showcases a collaborative regional ethos. This shift is emblematic of Ethiopia’s adaptive strategies in the face of evolving geopolitical realities, where the focus is shifting from sovereign expansion to sustainable, legally framed cooperation.
A Reflective Conclusion: Lessons and Legacies
The unfolding of these events through the Ankara accord underscores a critical juncture for Ethiopia and Somalia, illuminating the path from contentious to cooperative relations. It serves as a poignant reminder of the costly nature of ambitious overreach without adequate diplomatic grounding. The insights gained from this episode underscore the imperative for nations to foster a mindset of learning from past oversights. By embracing a philosophy of adaptive diplomacy and mutual respect, both nations can forge a future that avoids the pitfalls of previous errors and builds a foundation for lasting peace and shared prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This strategic pivot may well mark a historic redefinition of regional interactions, setting a precedent for future diplomatic engagements across the continent and beyond.
Scorecards in Diplomacy: Ethiopia and Somalia’s Wins
While the Ankara Declaration ostensibly presents a balanced scorecard in terms of diplomatic gains, a closer analysis reveals a subtle advantage for Ethiopia. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed, through strategic patience and diplomatic finesse, has navigated Ethiopia to a position where it not only gains necessary maritime access but does so through an internationally acceptable framework that enhances its regional standing and economic prospects. On the other hand, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud secures a significant win by maintaining Somali sovereignty and potentially easing internal pressures. However, Ethiopia’s broader strategic gains in this diplomatic chess game hint at a slightly higher score for Dr. Abiy Ahmed, even as both leaders walk away with enhanced capabilities and reduced tensions, paving the way for a more interconnected and prosperous Horn of Africa.
Navigating a Labyrinth: The Challenges for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud
While Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed can bask in the diplomatic successes of the Ankara Accord without significant domestic backlash, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud finds himself navigating a labyrinth of internal and external pressures that compound the complexity of his leadership at this critical juncture. Within Somalia, the president faces a combustible political climate marked by standoffs with opposition groups and regional governments like Puntland and Jubaland, the latter having recently underscored its defiance with a resonant military confrontation against the Somali National Army. This internal strife casts a long shadow over Mohamud’s ability to champion the Ankara Accord as a win for Somalia, as he must meticulously articulate its benefits not only to the national assembly and politicians but also to a populace wary of external agreements perceived as encroachments on sovereignty.
The Asmara Trio Security Agreement: A Double-Edged Sword
Further complicating President Mohamud’s diplomatic tightrope is the Asmara Trio Security Agreement involving Egypt and Eritrea, which looms large over the Ankara outcomes. This agreement, while a separate entity, intertwines with the broader regional security dynamics, presenting Mohamud with the unenviable task of balancing external alliances with internal stability. As he returns from Ankara, the Somali president must address the specter of these alliances and reassure both allies and adversaries of Somalia’s strategic intentions. The challenge for Mohamud is not just in securing a diplomatic balance but in sustaining it amidst a political landscape fraught with turbulence and skepticism from multiple fronts. This delicate positioning underscores the nuanced and often precarious nature of leadership in regions marked by historical conflicts and contemporary geopolitical shifts.
A Visionary Call for Regional Unity and Prosperity
As a passionate advocate for the growth and success of the Horn of Africa, the skepticism and apprehension that often shadow our steps toward regional economic integration cannot be the anchors that hold us back. Indeed, the region bears scars from a tumultuous history—wounds deep and stark. However, it is essential to look beyond these historical grievances and foster a future anchored in economic prosperity and communal healing. The people of this region deserve a narrative woven with threads of optimism, showcasing that what unites us is far mightier than the divisions of yesteryears. This transformation requires a concerted effort from the astute minds and seasoned experts of the Horn, who must steer the ship away from the storms of pessimism towards the calm seas of hopeful horizons.
From a Small Office in Jigjiga: Reflections on the Ankara Accord
Seated in my modest office in Jigjiga, amid conversations with friends and diplomats, I am often asked to share my perspectives on the unfolding regional dynamics, such as the recent Ankara Accord. Over a reflective afternoon coffee, I ponder the broader implications of such diplomatic milestones. This accord is not merely a pact between nations but a beacon of potential for a region yearning for stability and growth. It offers a crucial lesson on the power of diplomacy and the importance of mutual respect and understanding in overcoming historical enmities. As we discuss these developments, it becomes increasingly clear that fostering a spirit of cooperation and collective ambition can indeed reshape our common future, making it as rich and vibrant as the diverse cultures that dot our landscapes. It is upon us, the current custodians of the Horn, to nurture these seeds of unity and prosperity, ensuring that the legacy we leave is one of peace and shared success, lighting the way for generations to come.
The writer can be reached at : +251900644648
Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
__
To Publish an Article On borkena , please send submission to info@borkena.com for consideration.
Join our Telegram Channel : t.me/borkena
Like borkena on Facebook
Add your business to Borkena Business Listing/Business Directory Jobs
Join the conversation. Follow us on X (formerly Twitter ) @zborkena to get the latest Ethiopian news updates regularly. Ethiopia To share information or for submission, send e-mail to info@borkena.com
Keep writing one masterpiece after another, Brother Mohamud. I agree with you that this is a great day for the fraternal peoples of Ethiopia and Somalia. They have tried every possible destructive way up until now. It is time to give peace a chance. With peace and stability, the sky will be the only limit with what the noble and naturally smart peoples of these two nations can achieve. They have everything they need to turn that region upside down industrially. They have a very robust and young population. They have proven reserves of natural resources needed for mechanize everything.
They have untamed water resources to quench the thirst of the entire population of East Africa. Lithium, rare earth, gold, platinum, diamond, titanium, carbon, iron ore, petroleum, fish that can feed the entire half of Africa and thousands of miles of undeveloped seashore. All they need is for their leaders to leave their destructive egos at the door of the meeting rooms and work their way to the promised land where their peoples can feed themselves, attain middle class status and no one will be above the law of the land. .