By Naod Hailu
(Extract from my forthcoming article)
Some argue that Ethiopia’s ethnic-based political system is the cancer of its politics. However, I would argue that Megalothymia-the relentless pursuit of superior recognition at the expense of others is the real cancer, though I partially subscribe to the former argument. The fight for hegemonic recognition through the degradation of other groups’ dignity has been by far the most predominant factor contributing to Ethiopia’s cycle of conflict and war.
Identity groups in Ethiopia have mobilized to rectify systemic injustices, inequalities, and persecution both the past and present that undermine their dignity. It is natural and even healthy for these groups to demand recognition. However, history has shown that rather than merely seeking justice, these groups have often fought to dismantle Ethiopian regimes in pursuit of superior recognition. Worse still, elites within these groups have manipulated their respective ethnic constituencies, inciting fear and stirring hatred against others to consolidate powerbase. This pattern aligns with what Francis Fukuyama describes as Megalothymia. In my forthcoming article, I discuss how the mainstream ethno nationalist movement have been victims of this phenomenon. However, my focus here is on how Abiy Ahmed’s strategy is also deeply rooted in Megalothymia, and how it is leading to the imminent bloody war between the Oromo and Amhara ethnic groups.
Inevitability of Genocidal War
Despite Abiy’s current grip on power maintained through the exploitation of state apparatuses, particularly the security forces and military, these forces alone cannot guarantee his long-term survival. In a multi-ethnic state like Ethiopia, authoritarian rule cannot be sustained indefinitely through military might alone. The TPLF serves as a case in point. In spite of building a formidable military, arguably superior to Abiy’s one, it ultimately failed to prevent the culmination of the power of the regime. Cognizant of this shortcoming, Abiy has adopted a hegemonic political strategy shaped by Megalothymia to win the hearts of Oromo people. This strategy seeks to reinforce his groggy military with a strong political power base derived from his ethnic group in the name of ensuring the triumph of Oromo ethnic group. A key tactic in this approach is the deliberate portrayal of the Amhara ethnic group as an existential threat to the Oromo people.
As the insurgent group Fano continues to grow in strength, making it increasingly difficult for Abiy’s regime to suppress them with a groggy military, he will likely resort to his final card: mobilizing the Oromo people by instilling hatred against the Amhara. He will leverage the long-standing “oppressive thesis” narrative, the one that has been stoked for decades-to frame the Amhara as an objective enemy. This will allow him to justify violence by eroding moral opposition to atrocities. As this rhetoric intensifies, tensions will escalate, making a bloody ethnic war between the Oromo and Amhara inevitable.
There are already clear indications that the regime has begun employing this strategy. High-ranking Oromo political officials have used derogatory language against the Amhara people. In his 2019 Irrecha speech , the current president of Oromia region, Shimels Abdisa declared, “We have crippled neftegna”-a term used pejoratively to refer to Amhara people. Additionally, both ruling party officials and opposition figures from the Oromo ethnic group claimed that Addis Ababa must belong to the Oromo people, implying that Amhara and other groups are outsiders. The narrative of “crippling the enemy” and portraying Amharas as outsiders lays the groundwork for genocidal war.
History has shown that using fear to manipulate the population into supporting violence leads to devastating results. The Rwandan Genocide of 1994 and the Holocaust (1941-1945) are the stark reminders of how propaganda driven fear can justify atrocities. Ethiopia is no exception; as long as Abiy’s regime remains in power, the country risks following the same tragic path.
How to Halt Abiy’s Dangerous Path
Before discussing potential remedies, it is important to ask a fundamental question: How is it possible for Abiy’s repressive regime to remain in power, perpetuating torture and suffering, despite having a fragile state apparatus and a lack of a strong power base? Who should be held accountable for the myriad of problems that have engulfed the country? Key political actors, activists, and the population as a whole must bear more responsibility than the incumbent government for the ongoing atrocities, as they have shown a lukewarm proclivity while ህዝቡ ጭነቅላት ላይ መንግስት ቀይወጥ ሲሰራ with groggy state apparatus and lack of power base.
Abiy’s regime cannot survive without violence. The regime has fostered an environment of constant hostility and instability, subjecting the people to emotional and mental insecurity. Abiy himself has stated that “the country will continue to exist through blood.” Rather than seeking to resolve the ongoing crisis through political dialogue, Abiy seems more willing to tie his neck to a thread than to engage in meaningful discussions. His lack of well-articulated, genuine ideas and his lack of a solid power base have led him to view any political dialogue with key actors and concerned bodies as an existential threat to his rule. This mindset has only prolonged the suffering of the people.
Therefore, it is non-negotiable to take urgent action to dismantle his regime. A non-violent approach is the most viable path to swiftly bring down the regime. This responsibility falls under the shoulders of the three major ethnic groups-the Tigray, Oromo, and Amhara. These groups must rise above their divisions and form an alliance. Addressing the House of People’s Representatives, Abiy claimed that no one could overthrow his regime using the same tactics he and his team used to gain power. This proverb suits his frustration; ‘ፈስ ያለበት ዝላይ ኣይችልም’ There is a probability event that technique would work.
While it is quite complex to envision these groups joining forces, this step is the easiest part of the problem which is not only precluding the genocidal war but also it would open the right path toward finishing the Ethiopian state building project. One might argue that as long as megalothymia continues to shape the agenda of the mainstream identity groups, it would be futile to encourage them to unite in dismantling the current repressive regime. This is a valid concern. However, the ethnic groups have no other choice but to suppress their hegemonic aspirations and work together to prevent the imminent catastrophe facing the country. Equally important, they should step aside some of the sensitive areas where they have a difference. It is a luxury to stick to differences right now.
It is crucial to underline that moderate Ethiopianist forces must refrain from participating in efforts to resolve the current crisis for the time being. While their sacrifices for the country and their commitment to civic-based democratic ideals are commendable, given the current political reality, they must take a step back. They should wait until the right time comes when their ideas can truly shine in the Ethiopian political system. For instance, some Ethiopianist forces including Lidetu Ayalew have made attempts to resolve the ongoing crisis through national dialogue rooted in democratic principles, but these efforts have been foiled. Their lack of a power base coupled with the perception that their efforts threaten the regime’s survival have made their move abortive. Some of them even ended up being pawns of the regime. Therefore, these actors must distance themselves from the process for the time being.
All in all, the key actors and the people from the three ethnic groups should recognize that the eruption of the devastating war that has never happened in Ethiopian history is becoming inevitable. Cognizant of this looming threat, they should act swiftly to dismantle the regime through non violence approach before it is too late. To achieve this, they should form an alliance built on trust while suppressing their hegemonic aspiration. Once this foundation is established, other ethnic groups across the country can be easily drawn into the coalition. Equally, moderate Ethiopianist forces should be part of this process by isolating themselves for the time being.
If the three ethnic groups hesitate to join together to take decisive action urgently, the suffering of Amhara people from the ongoing war, the hardship faced by Tigray and the Oromo people would continue even worse and finally the catastrophic war would be erupted. In this horrible process, the ethnic groups outside of the three groups would be equally part of the suffering.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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“If the three ethnic groups hesitate to join together “ statement of this article is a pipe dream . A political movement based on ethnicity inherently fragile uncompromising for unification or very weak to form a joint action in Ethiopia’s current political history.you will be advise to revise your upcoming article.